Why are so many MSPs resigning at the 2026 Scottish Parliament election, as Nicola Sturgeon leads the exodus?

From the 1999 club looking to end a long stint in office to those getting jittery over turbulent polling, dozens of MSPs have already said they will be standing down at next year’s Holyrood election.

Some of the biggest names in Scottish politics, including several Cabinet secretaries and government ministers, are among the many who have officially declared they are resigning from frontline politics in just over a year’s time.

But why exactly are so many standing down?

For quite a few, it is simply a matter of age and length of service. Fiona Hyslop, Shona Robison, Christine Grahame and Richard Lochhead, who have all been in the Scottish Parliament since its inception in 1999, have done their time.

Finance Secretary Shona Robison and Transport Secretary Fiona Hyslop. | NationalWorld

Others have seen personal scandals accelerate their downfall. Former health secretary Michael Matheson, who was forced to resign from government last year over his £11,000 iPad scandal, comes to mind here.

And, of course, among the departing cohort are two former first ministers. Never before has Holyrood seen two ex-leaders languishing on the backbenches, so perhaps it is no surprise both Nicola Sturgeon and Humza Yousaf have decided to call it a day.

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Given how young Mr Yousaf still is, at 39, there will always be a question over what may have been in 2026 had things gone differently for him, or if he had never been first minister at all.

Former first minister Humza Yousaf, First Minister John Swinney and former first minister Nicola Sturgeon in Holyrood’s debating chamber. | Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

But many in the SNP will be looking at recent polls, which have the party remaining as Scotland’s largest, but losing seats, and getting worried about their chances of being re-elected.

Pollster Mark Diffley told The Scotsman: “They are probably looking at the polls and thinking ‘what are my chances next time?’ The SNP has recovered, but it still looks like it will lose a few seats compared to 2021, even if it is the largest party.

“They [politicians] will be jostling to get onto the lists, which is much more competitive and becomes more of a lottery.

Read more: The Scottish politicians standing down at the 2026 Holyrood election

“Do you really want to put yourself through all that again, all that campaigning, all that time, to maybe not even get on the list, or not get high enough up the list to get elected?”

At the moment, only two out of the SNP’s 62 MSPs are regional list MSPs - all the rest were elected to constituency seats using the first-past-the-post system.

The Scottish Parliament building in Edinburgh | Press Association

However, Mr Diffley said he believed the changing fortunes of the Nationalists would mean more MSPs were elected on the regional lists, which uses a form of proportional representation, instead of the constituency vote in 2026.

This is coupled with a potential influx of former SNP MPs wanting to make their Holyrood debut. In last year’s general election, the SNP lost 48 of its Westminster seats as Scottish Labour swept the board across the Central Belt.

Many of these ex-MPs are still looking for something to do, with many expected to throw their hats into the ring for the 2026 Scottish Parliament election. Former party MPs vetted to stand include Anne McLaughlin, Kirsten Oswald, Anum Qaisar, Tommy Shepperd, Alyn Smith, Alison Thewliss, Richard Thomson and Calum Kerr.

So for many backbench MSPs in Holyrood, the prospect of coming up against highly-experienced and well known ex-MPs may be too much.

Mr Diffley said: “There could be a lot of new faces in Holyrood, particularly amongst the SNP. But will they be replaced with fresh faces, or by ex-MPs looking to stay in politics by moving to Holyrood? Maybe it will be a mix of the two.”

David Linden is one of the MPs who has already publicly asked his local branch to select him as a candidate.

The latest polling suggests the SNP will win 55 seats, meaning they will remain the largest party in Scotland - but this is somewhat down from the 64 seats they won under Ms Sturgeon in 2021.

For others it is not necessarily polling that is making them leave the Scottish Parliament - it is simply how unrealistic it is to work as an MSP and have a young family.

Children’s minister Natalie Don-Innes cited her growing young family in her resignation statement, saying: “While I have balanced my family life and parliamentary life since 2021, it has come with the sacrifices that being an elected member and a mother brings.”

Children’s Minister Natalie Don-Innes | Andrew Milligan/Press Association

Conservative MSP Oliver Mundell also spoke about his young family when he announced he would not be standing for re-election in 2026.

Speaking of the Conservatives, not many have said they will be resigning - so far only three MSPs have announced this is the path they are taking. However, the rising threat of Reform UK could see more stepping aside between now and May next year.

The latest polling suggests the Scottish Conservatives will slip from the 31 seats they won in 2021 to just 16.

Reform could win around a dozen seats, with the Scottish Election Study researchers predicting Nigel Farage’s party will pick up around 17 per cent of the vote. Note, parties need to gain around 6 per cent on the list vote to start picking up seats.

Leader of Reform UK Nigel Farage.

Mr Diffley said: “There is the possibility that current MSPs are thinking they might have a better chance under the Reform banner.

“The Conservatives have still got a chance of holding their constituency seats because of the size of their majorities and where they are, and they will not be under as much pressure from Reform who won’t win any constituency seats at this stage.

“But Reform will do better on the list and will be taking seats from the Conservatives.”

What is clear though, is there is an almost unprecedented number of people planning to leave Holyrood. So whatever the outcome of the 2026 election, the parliament and the government will look markedly different.

As Mr Diffley puts it: “There will be a significant amount of churn and we could be seeing a lot of new faces in parliament.”