Reform becomes the 3rd most popular party in Scotland ahead of the Tories

Reform is now “comfortably” the third most popular party in Scotland ahead of the Conservatives - but is unlikely to gain much more support.

Polling experts at the Scottish Election Study predict Nigel Farage’s party will win a “substantial degree of support” in the 2026 Holyrood election, after securing 7 per cent in last year’s general election north of the border.

Data from the academic group suggests Reform UK will win 17.1 per cent of constituency votes and 17.8 per cent of list votes at the 2026 Scottish Parliament election.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage | Benjamin Cremel/Getty Images

The only parties ahead of this are the SNP on 32.6 per cent and 30 per cent, and Labour on 20.9 per cent and 17.9 per cent.

This means Reform could surpass the Scottish Conservatives who are currently polling at just 11.7 per cent and 12.1 per cent.

However, the experts suggest Reform will “struggle” to exceed 20 per cent in the Scottish polls, partly due to the fact the party appeals to a limited group who are pro-Brexit and anti-immigration, along with a deep unpopularity for its leader in Scotland.

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Mr Farage is the least popular of all the UK leaders in Scotland, most notably because of his association with US President Donald Trump.

The only leader the Scots scored lower was Mr Trump himself.

Fraser McMillan from the Scottish Election Study said: “It is worth emphasising however, that a result anywhere close to that margin would not only be impressive for an organisation starting from essentially zero, but it would also deliver both regional seats and, in a crowded candidate list, could take constituency seats.”

He added: “The party is simply providing an option for a segment of Scottish public opinion that is currently under-represented among Scottish parties.

“It’s fair to say that those switching to Reform are broadly anti-independence and pro-Brexit, and that they have become more so since the referendums, particularly in relation to independence.”

The Scottish Election Study also found that 63 per cent of Reform voters are male, 32 per cent are between the ages of 25 and 49, and 85 per cent were born in Scotland (a further 14 per cent were born elsewhere in the UK).

First Minister John Swinney is due to hold an anti-Reform summit later this spring to tackle the party’s rise, and so far Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar, Scottish Green co-leader Lorna Slater and Alba MSP Ash Regan have all agreed to attend.

First Minister John Swinney

But the SNP is the least likely to be impacted by the rise of reform - 59 per cent of those who voted SNP in 2021 will stick with the nationalists in 2026. SNP voters from 2021 are also the least likely to support Reform because of the party’s views on Brexit.

The rise of Reform in Scotland is most likely to hit the Conservatives the hardest.

Mr McMillan added: “Reform’s rise in the polls, since its emergence as a serious electoral threat to the Conservatives last July, has gripped Holyrood for months.

“There is still a distance to go until the election next year, and while our latest data suggests the party might well have already attracted most of its potential support, it has done so without the tools the other parties have available to get their message out.

“What is clear is that the party has a distinct profile within Scottish political space, more obviously on ideological grounds than demographic ones, for now.”

The data came from 1,200 people via the Scottish Opinion Monitor between February 25 and March 3.