Scotland's Lions squad contenders: Four certainties, a clutch of maybes and one bolter

Who will board plane to Australia as hosts of Scots look forward to big announcement

At the end of a long, gruelling season the biggest impediment to those players hoping to be on the British & Irish Lions plane to Australia is injury.

Scotland's leading contenders seem to have been struck down in a particularly aggressive manner with Sione Tuipulotu, Duhan van der Merwe, Huw Jones, Blair Kinghorn and Zander Fagerson all currently sidelined.

The good news is that Tuipulotu and Jones are close to a return and could even play this weekend for Glasgow Warriors against Benetton. The bad news is that van der Merwe, Fagerson and Kinghorn all face a little longer in the treatment room.

Duhan van der Merwe and Huw Jones are two of Scotland's Lions hopefuls who are currently injured. | SNS Group

Andy Farrell, the Lions head coach, will name his squad on Thursday and with 10 fixtures ahead of them it needs to be suitably robust. The demands placed on the world’s best players are already enormous and the domestic campaigns in Europe afford no time off before the game’s elite don their red jerseys.

The finals of the United Rugby Championship and Gallagher Premiership are scheduled for June 14, six days before the Lions play their first game against Argentina in Dublin for the 1888 Cup. The French season runs even later. The Top 14 final will take place in Paris on June 28, the same day the Lions are due to play Western Force at the Optus Stadium in Perth in their opening match on Australian soil.

There is every likelihood that Kinghorn could be lining up with Toulouse at the Stade de France and joining up with the Lions a couple of days later. Hardly ideal but the French league cannot be expected to put the needs of the Lions above their own.

The bigger concern for Farrell will be around Kinghorn’s knee injury because the full-back belongs to that small band of Scots who are nailed on to be in the squad if they can prove their fitness.

The certainties

Reports in France are generally upbeat about Kinghorn. The injury to his right knee is described as “minor” and he should be fit to return at the end of May, with the convalescence period reckoned to be at least three weeks. He suffered a medial collateral ligament sprain while contesting a high ball against Castres and it caused him to miss the Champions Cup semi-final against Bordeaux on Sunday, a match Toulouse lost.

Having given up their European crown, Toulouse will be all the more determined to retain the Top 14 title and they are currently 10 points clear of Bordeaux in the standings with four rounds of regular season fixtures remaining. Kinghorn could make his return at home to Lyon in the penultimate round on May 31. The semi-finals take place on June 20 and 21.

The move to France from Edinburgh has supercharged Kinghorn. He won a league and Champions Cup double in his first season and enjoyed an outstanding Six Nations with Scotland this year, being one of four short-listed for player of the tournament. Louis Bielle-Biarrey took the award ahead of Kinghorn, England wing Tommy Freeman and Italy’s Tommaso Menoncello but Kinghorn and Freeman’s performances across the championship mean they are on course to not only be in Farrell’s squad but Test starters against the Wallabies in Brisbane on July 19.

Finn Russell is in contention to be a Lions starter. | SNS Group

The same could be said of Finn Russell who has hardly put a foot wrong for Bath this season. Top of the Premiership and through to the Challenge Cup final, he is on the cusp of helping the famous club win major honours for the first time in 17 years.

It is incredible to think that the most gifted Scottish player of his generation has still not started a Test match for the Lions but he deserves that opportunity on what would be his third tour. It will likely come down to a straight choice between Russell and Fin Smith, with two from three of England’s other 10s - Marcus Smith, George Ford and Owen Farrell - also likely to be on the plane. Ireland’s Sam Prendergast may have played himself out of contention in Leinster’s Champions Cup defeat by Northampton.

Sione Tuipulotu is back training with Glasgow Warriors. | SNS Group

Tuipulotu didn’t play a minute of the Six Nations but, as Glasgow assistant coach Pete Murchie put it this week, should have enough credit in the bank to win Lions selection. He may even have a shout at the captaincy. He led Scotland impressively during the autumn series and was set to do the same in the Six Nations before ripping a pectoral muscle while training with Glasgow. Surgery followed but the Warriors expect him to play a part in at least one if not both of their remaining regular season fixtures before they continue the defence of their URC crown in the play-offs.

Caelan Doris’ untimely shoulder injury could rob the Lions of their leading captaincy candidate and, if the Irishman doesn’t make it, Farrell is likely to pick one of Maro Itoje, Dan Sheehan, Jac Morgan or Tuipulotu as skipper.

Completing the quartet of Scottish Lions certainties should be Pierre Schoeman. Ireland’s Andrew Porter is the frontrunner to be the starting Test loosehead but Edinburgh prop Schoeman ball-carrying abilities are likely to secure his place in the squad.

The Maybes

All things being equal, Zander Fagerson would be a certainty for selection and a good shout for the Test team. Unfortunately, the Glasgow Warriors prop has been laid low with a calf injury and may not play again for this club this season. The timing is rotten for Fagerson but Murchie is confident he’ll be fit for the Lions.

Zander Fagerson currently has a calf injury. | SNS Group

The same will hopefully also be true for van der Merwe who injured his ankle playing for Edinburgh against the Dragons on March 28 and is not expected to return until late May. The winger started all three Test matches against South Africa on the last Lions tour and had an impressive Six Nations but Farrell will need to be convinced of his fitness.

Jones is another who impressed for Scotland in February and March and - along with Kinghorn - was one of only two Scots in the Six Nations team of the Championship. He has not played since but is close to a return and can hopefully rekindle his centre partnership with Tuipulotu as Glasgow bid to go deep again in the URC. Transferring the Huwipulotu axis to the Lions would be a sight to behold.

The outsiders

Like Tuipulotu, Scott Cummings was struck down on the eve of the Six Nations and missed the entire tournament with a broken arm. He’s back now and played the last 20 minutes of Glasgow’s match against the Bulls last month. He could do with more games but is another with “credit in the bank” as one of the most consistent second rows in the UK and Ireland. Itoje and Tadhg Beirne will be favourites for the Test team but Cummings’ dependability would be a big asset for the Lions.

In the back row, Jamie Ritchie, Rory Darge and Jack Dempsey all have solid claims to be included. Ritchie has been Edinburgh’s most consistent player over the last two seasons and it’s no coincidence he was picked to start four of Scotland’s five Six Nations matches. Darge’s form may have shaded slightly in the championship but his ability at the breakdown is world class.

Jamie Ritchie has been in excellent form for Edinburgh. | SNS Group

Dempsey is another who is currently injured. The Scotland No 8 has not played since the Six Nations round four game against Wales due to a hamstring problem but could return in the URC play-offs for Glasgow. His inclusion for the Lions would be particularly intriguing given he was capped 14 times by Australia before switching allegiance in 2022.

Back row is one of the most hotly contested areas of Farrell’s squad and the coach may be reluctant to take a risk on an injured player with so many options available to him.

Van der Merwe is not the only Scotland winger in with a chance of a Lions call. Darcy Graham’s pace and elusiveness offer something entirely different and the news on Tuesday that Ireland’s Mack Hansen is expected to be out for five weeks with an ankle injury strengthens the case of the Hawick man who averages a try every 1.5 Tests.

Tom Jordan has risen to prominence this season. | SNS Group

Tom Jordan might be considered a bolter given that he only made his Scotland debut in the autumn but his ability to play internationally at centre, stand-off and full-back could appeal to Farrell. Hybrid players are in vogue at the moment and Jordan’s versatility should be prized.

Eight Scots were included in the 37-strong squad when the Lions last toured in 2021. Given the number who are injured this year, that figure is unlikely to be matched when Farrell reveals his selection in London on Thursday.