Reform not as big an issue for Labour as people think, say pollsters

Reform is not as big a threat to Labour as people think, according to Scottish pollsters - but immigration is proving to be a thorny issue for the party.

The Scottish Election Study also predicts parties may use posters of Nigel Farage with other politicians in his pocket as a campaigning tool, similar to the Tory campaign posters of Alex Salmond and Ed Miliband in 2015.

The latest polling suggests Scottish Labour is on course for its worst election result since devolution, returning just 18 seats - down from the 22 seats the party won in 2021.

The same Norstat poll also suggests Reform UK will win 15 seats.

Speaking at the Scottish Labour Party conference in Glasgow, Fraser McMillan from the Scottish Election Study said: “Reform is getting a huge amount of support from the Tories, but I don’t necessarily think they are as big a threat to Labour as has been hyped up.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage | Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

“By and large it is the people who voted Tory and want the full-fat version of what they didn’t have before.”

The Scottish Election Study says this means there will be a battle for “middle Scotland” in the 2026 Holyrood election.

Around 18 per cent of Conservative voters who switched to Labour in the general election are now planning to vote Reform in future elections.

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Mr McMillan added: “The extreme unpopularity of Nigel Farage is a bit of a drag on Reform’s support, and they still have not got infrastructure in Scotland.

“I can imagine an SNP or Labour poster like there was in 2015 of Nigel Farage with someone in his pocket.”

The Scottish Election Study also says many voters who switched to Labour in last year’s general election are leaving the party over the issue of immigration.

Those who support immigration are drifting to the SNP, and those who are against it are going to the Conservatives.

The researchers said: “Put another way, the immigration issue is prompting some leakiness in support in both directions.”

Anas Sarwar arriving at the Scottish Labour Party conference | Andrew Milligan/Press Association

Research carried out by the Scottish Election Study found 41.6 per cent of voters in last year’s general election were motivated by ousting the Conservatives from office - a further 18.2 per cent said they wanted to maximise the number of pro-union MPs in Westminster, and 14.4 per cent said the same thing about pro-independence MPs.

Labour was able to appeal to SNP and Conservative voters across the divide on the questions of independence and Brexit.

A total of 33.2 per cent of Labour voters supported the party because they were voting tactically, and of this 81 per cent were voting tactically against the SNP.

Fifty per cent of those who switched from the SNP to Labour will stay with Labour at the 2026 Holyrood election, and 25 per cent will go back to the SNP.

The researchers said: “The Scottish Parliament 2026 election looks like a reconsolidation on the Yes side and further fragmentation on the No side.

“The current switching from Labour in 2024 is explained by voters returning ‘home’.”