Humza Yousaf and Rishi Sunak could both be out of office this time next year – John McLellan

The Prime Minister and First Minister are both in big trouble with a poll suggesting electoral wipeout for the former’s party and the latter’s repeated political missteps putting him on course for a fall from office

Another weekend, another grim opinion poll for Rishi Sunak, and as he and his strategist Isaac Levido seem determined to avoid a general election in May, we’ve probably got another ten months of it to go. My argument for a spring poll being to the Conservatives’ advantage, in Scotland anyway, was that it gave the SNP less time to get its act together and, judging by the massive seat-by-seat YouGov poll of 14,000 voters revealed in yesterday’s Daily Telegraph, he needs all the help he can get.

If Reform carries out its threat to stand in all seats, a collapse to 169 seats is forecast, with Labour strolling to a 65-seat majority with 385. If Reform back off, it might deny Sir Keir Starmer an overall majority, but the Conservatives would still lose. Even if the weekend fatalities in the Channel focus minds ahead of this week’s vote on the Rwanda Bill, Mr Sunak is in a bind. Lose the vote and toughen the legislation and he looks weak, win the vote and Reform will stand.

Reform has little impact here, and contrary to hopes Tory representation in Scotland could increase in the North-East because of Labour’s confusion over North Sea oil, YouGov forecasts the party will only hold four, losing two, including Scotland Secretary Alister Jack’s Dumfries and Galloway seat, being defended by Stranraer-born journalist John Cooper. It could be a rare SNP success, one of 25 constituencies the survey predicts the nationalists can secure, but last week’s Redfield and Wilton survey of 1,040 Scottish voters estimated the SNP would collapse to 19 seats, and the Scottish Conservatives hold steady with 17 per cent of the vote.

Humza Yousaf was left with all manner of problems by Nicola Sturgeon but has done little to alter her course (Picture: Russell Cheyne-Pool/Getty Images)

Inherited disaster

Whether there are four, six or seven Scottish Conservative MPs isn’t the point for the SNP, because Humza Yousaf and SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn have made the defeat of all Scottish Tories a campaign goal, a hostage to fortune where the return of just one is a defeat. The approach also demonises around nearly a fifth of the population, with Mr Flynn telling the BBC the party is “ready to make sure that Scotland is free of the Conservatives”. Mr Flynn, and others like him, have not explained where 31 MSPs, over 200 councillors, hundreds of party members, and their families, should go, and with all that’s going on in the Middle East, is it too much to expect nationalists to avoid such language?

Perhaps Mr Sunak can console himself that he inherited a disaster and, with the best will, there was little chance of snatching victory from defeat in the relatively short time left, but what of Mr Yousaf, who took over a party still dominant at all levels? Although Nicola Sturgeon left all manner of problems, he cannot claim to have been a change candidate who recognised all was not well and set out to steer a different course.

The talk about resetting the relationship with business is turning out to be just that. Nor has he been able to shake off the other hostage to fortune bequeathed by Ms Sturgeon, the election as a de facto independence referendum. Framing a vote against the SNP as a vote against independence in a desperate bid to retain the support of Yes voters who, according to Redfield and Wilton, currently make up 46 per cent of the population compared to the 35 per cent who said they would vote SNP, is tantamount to the same thing.

Industrial strategy for non-existent government

Mr Yousaf might want to consider resetting the relationship with his election team, after his opening campaign speech last week, focussing on a claim that everyone would be £10,200 better off under independence, was roundly dismissed as laughable at best, worryingly deluded and contradictory at worst. It takes a special sort of strategist to think the proposal to bankroll a £20 billion capital investment fund from North Sea oil and gas won’t be noticed after Mr Yousaf slammed the UK Government for approving the licence for the Rosebank oilfield in September. “The UK Government is rolling back on its climate commitments with 100 new oil and gas licences… that’s not climate leadership, it’s climate denial,” he said then, while failing to add: “But we’ll need the dosh if we’re ever independent, so I better pipe down.”

By the end of the week, the launch speech had all but been forgotten, which is perhaps just as well, but it still begged the question why a major speech by a serving First Minster was dedicated to an industrial strategy for a non-existent government, rather than the government for which he is responsible. But his administration’s priorities were re-emphasised with the launch of a consultation about legislation to criminalise conversion therapy, in extreme cases trying to coerce people into accepting a sexuality they reject.

Coercing anybody to do anything against their will is obviously wrong, but the implication of the proposals appears to be that anyone asking a young person confused about their sexuality to perhaps stop and have a think before they undergo a course of potentially harmful puberty blockers or, worse, irreversible drastic surgery, could theoretically find themselves in the dock. As it’s a consultation, it might not happen, but the wording left no doubt that the SNP-Green agenda is to outlaw such conversations.

Lessons have clearly not been learnt from the Gender Recognition Reform Act, the Hate Crime Act, the intrusive named persons plan or the Offensive Behaviour at Football Act, and no wonder so many SNP supporters are dismayed at the continued relish with which the party embraces the confrontational identity politics the Greens wear as a badge of honour.

It's not Mr Yousaf’s fault the week ended with his brother-in-law being lifted for alleged drug offences, but if this is going to be a very difficult year for Mr Sunak, it could be just as tough for the First Minster. And who’d give odds on them both still being in office?