How Donald Trump support was underestimated as former US president wins White House race

Donald Trump has achieved one of the most remarkable political comebacks in modern US history to claim victory in a fraught and tense US election contest, with the Republican nominee upsetting predictions to comfortably secure a series of key swing states in a result that will have major ramifications around the world.

The 78 year-old’s return to the White House was effectively secured by 10.30am GMT on Wednesday after he was projected to reclaim the battleground state of Wisconsin from the Democrats, adding to earlier triumphs in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina.

In a speech in which he vowed to usher in a “golden age of America”, Mr Trump drew loud cheers from his supporters as he hailed the “greatest political movement of all time” - one he said was about to “reach a new level of importance”.

Donald Trump has made history with his non-consecutive election win. | Getty Images

Mr Trump said: “We’re going to help our country heal. We’ve got a country that needs help very badly. We’re going to fix our borders. we’re going to fix everything about our country. We made history for a reason tonight.

“We overcame obstacles that nobody thought possible, and it’s now clear we’ve achieved the votes ... look what happened! It’s a political victory that our country has never seen before.”

His defeated opponent Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris called Mr Trump to congratulate him on his victory, a senior aide said, adding that she discussed the importance of a peaceful transfer of power ahead of a planned concession speech.

A short time later, President Joe Biden also called Mr Trump to congratulate him and to invite the president-elect to the White House, formally kicking off the transition ahead of Inauguration Day, the White House said. Mr Biden also called Ms Harris.

In the days and weeks to come, there will be a torrent of analysis picking apart the shifting loyalities that propelled Mr Trump back to power and thwarted perceptions of America’s political landscape, but the early takeaways are clear. As has been the case in each of the past two US elections, a succession of polls severely underestimated the support for Mr Trump. And uniquely this time around, the American electorate has decided en-masse that a man who became the first former president in US history to be criminally convicted is fit to retake that hallowed office.

Donald Trump addresses supporters in Florida after his projected election win. | Getty Images

He achieved his victory by taking votes not just from his wife working class base, but from urban Democratic strongholds, as well as Latino and black voters, and younger members of the elecorate. In Wisconsin, for example, he took 21 per cent of the black vote; four years ago, his share was just eight per cent. In the same state, he secured the backing of 58 per cent of first time voters.

The Trump campaign also succeeding stemming the expected upturn in female votes for his opponent Ms Harris, who failed to make inroads in appealing to women despite a campaign that leaned heavily on reproductive rights.

Having once again confounding the polls, which indicated the race was too tight to call, Mr Trump will become the first president since Grover Cleveland in the late 19th century to secure two non-consecutive terms in office.

Donald Trump's supporters react while watching results come in during an election night watch party in West Palm Beach, Florida. Picture: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images | Getty Images

The polls also indicated the Republicans are set to regain the majority control of the Senate they lost four years ago. The importance of that outcome cannot be overstated, given the way it would afford Mr Trump the power to make appointments to his cabinet and the Supreme Court with little resistance. The race to control the House of Representatives remained too close to call as of 2pm on Wednesday.

As people in Scotland woke up to check in on the results of a tumultuous contest that took in assassination attempts, courtroom dramas, and increasingly heated rhetoric, Mr Trump addressed his supporters in West Palm Beach, Florida. His lengthy and meandering speech saw Mr Trump not only reflect on the election results, but promote the book of his wife. There were also brief contributions from his running mate, J.D. Vance.

Cedric Richmond, the co-chair of the Harris campaign, said they would “continue overnight to fight to make sure that every vote is counted, that every voice has spoken”. The tone of his message, like the atmosphere at Harris HQ, was notably downbeat, and the incumbent vice-president is not expected to address her supporters until later on Wednesday.

Some Harris supporters were left in tears as results came through. | AFP via Getty Images

After a long anxious night, the outcome of one of the most consequential elections in US history began to slowly emerge in the small hours before dawn on this side of the Atlantic.

Come 4.40am BST, the Trump campaign celebrated a significant milestone after winning North Carolina, the first of seven battleground states integral to the overall race. Mr Trump won the Tar Heel state in 2016, and again with a smaller margin four years ago. But even so, the latest victory served as a bellwether of what to expect going forward, and bolstered the mood at Mr Trump’s watch party. 

That optimism proved well-placed. Less than an hour later, the momentum in the Trump camp enjoyed a major boost with a projected victory in Georgia. This was a win that felt even more important, and cleared the path for Republicans to regain the White House. The swing state flipped for Mr Biden and the Democrats in 2020, and backed the Democratic candidate for Senate during the mid-term elections in 2022. 

Kamala Harris is expected to address the nation later on Wednesday after her defeat. Picture: Getty | AFP via Getty Images

Despite that, and the fact that Mr Trump had been indicted for his actions in Georgia following the election four years ago, when he called on state officials to “find” enough votes to flip the state for him to win, a majority of the electorate in the peach state clearly decided he was the best candidate this time around.

The death knell for the Harris campaign and the resurrection of Mr Trump was all but complete shortly after 7am, when Pennsylvania, a bulwark of the so-called ‘blue wall’ seen as vital to Democratic aspirations, went red. Then, when Winconsin went Mr Trump’s way, there was an echo of the shocks that reverebrated around the world eight years ago, when the same state helped push him over the 270 electoral college vote threshold.

It is a result that will be pored over for generations to come. But for many in the US and further afield, the priority is what the next four years have in store.