Analysis

What a Donald Trump win means for Westminster's new Labour government

The result is not the one Labour was hoping for

Donald Trump is set to return to the White House in one of the most remarkable political comebacks in presidential history.

But while the result for Westminster may not be entirely unexpected, despite Mr Trump’s numerous legal battles, the outcome will call for an immediate assessment of Britain’s priorities and a change in how the parties conduct themselves.

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Under a Tory Government, it was easy for Labour MPs to criticise the Republican leader. David Lammy called Mr Trump a "tyrant in a toupee" and a "dangerous clown". Cabinet minister Wes Streeting labelled the incoming US president an "odious, sad, little man". In 2016, Ed Miliband criticised UK politicians pleased with Mr Trump's victory, saying “the idea that we have shared values with a racist, misogynistic self-confessed groper beggars belief”.

How the times have changed. Labour is now in a position where it has already sought not just to reframe itself as “critical friend”, but actively looked to forge good relations with President Trump. This has not been easy, particularly after a row over Labour staffers heading to the US to campaign for his presidential rival Kamala Harris.

Donald Trump dances off stage at the conclusion of a campaign rally earlier this week.Donald Trump dances off stage at the conclusion of a campaign rally earlier this week.
Donald Trump dances off stage at the conclusion of a campaign rally earlier this week.

Sir Keir Starmer met with Mr Trump while in the US recently, and even kept quiet after the Trump campaign called Labour “far-left” and accused them of unlawful electoral interference. Responding, Sir Keir insisted he still had a “good relationship” with the former president.

Speaking on Wednesday morning, the Prime Minister said: “Congratulations President-elect Trump on your historic election victory. I look forward to working with you in the years ahead.

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“As the closest of allies, we stand shoulder to shoulder in defence of our shared values of freedom, democracy and enterprise. From growth and security to innovation and tech, I know that the UK-US special relationship will continue to prosper on both sides of the Atlantic for years to come.”

This support is what governments have to do, but maintaining that discipline among his MPs will be no mean feat for a Labour leader who has so far enjoyed total command of his party.

Senior ministers have repeatedly stressed they can work with a Trump White House in the build up to the US election, with Mr Lammy, now foreign secretary, going as far as to insist he can find "common ground" with JD Vance, President Trump's running mate.

Mr Lammy said he had a "similar background" to the Ohio senator, as they were both from working-class backgrounds and Christian. He was also reported to have charmed the president-elect at a dinner, as well as working on improving relations through back channels.

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This is easier said than done, not least due to the fact the soon-to-be vice president opposed aid for Ukraine and criticised Nato, which leads into the first major issue for Labour and Europe as a whole - the crisis in Ukraine.

Mr Trump’s closeness to Russian president Vladimir Putin has raised questions about future support for Ukraine, and he has also boasted that he could end the war immediately. This claim has prompted fears he would seek a deal that would require Ukraine to give up land. This would put Labour in a tricky position, with the UK totally opposed to any loss of sovereignty.

Then there are issues of funding for Ukraine, with Mr Trump again less likely to support arming the country, which is also facing issues on its frontline. A win for Mr Trump means Britain will now have to work with Europe to drastically increase defence spending, and perhaps even focus on Russia, moving a focus away from global threats, such as China.

Britain and the US do not have to mirror each other's policy, but on international issues the UK often requires support from the White House, or has to follow their lead. It was this approach that led to the British withdrawal from Afghanistan, unable to maintain troops without a US presence.

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There could also be issues over trade, especially if Mr Trump keeps his promise to levy tariffs on all imports in a bid to boost American manufacturing. Leading think-tank the National Institute of Economic and Social Research said it believed this could see UK growth halved.

Lobbying against this, or adapting to sweeping changes in international trade policy will be vital to a Labour government that has repeatedly insisted economic growth is its top priority. The Wine and Spirit Trade Association has already raised concerns about tariffs from the previous Trump administration and expressed hopes for a US-UK free trade agreement.

Finding new avenues of trade could also see, if not a closer relationship with the EU, then renewed calls for better ties with the bloc. Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey has already said “fixing the UK’s broken relationship with the EU is even more urgent than before”, as well as demanding the strengthening of trade and defence. This will also likely be echoed by the SNP.

Then there are Mr Trump’s mooted climate plans, including pulling the US out of the Paris Agreement once again and doubling down on fossil fuels. Lobbying against this, and encouraging the US to maintain backing for debt-distressed developing countries to also move towards net zero, is vital in averting the climate crisis.

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Many of Mr Trump’s policies are at odds with Labour values, whether it be on immigration, abortion or climate change. Finding a way to force compromises or work around the White House will be paramount.

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