Reform outspending all other parties in ad blitz ahead of crunch Holyrood by-election

Poltical expert says digital focus lays bare party’s lack of on-ground infrastructure

Reform is outspending the rest of Scotland’s main political parties put together as part of an advertising blitz on Facebook and other Meta platforms ahead of next month’s crunch Holyrood by-election.

Nigel Farage’s party launched its first political ads on Meta’s networks in nine months as it seeks to claim its first Scottish Parliament seat, spending several thousands pounds to target voters in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse.

Richard Tice, Reform’s deputy leader, has said the party is engaged in a “two horse race” with the SNP for the by-election, which was triggered following the death in March of local MSP and Scottish Government minister Christina McKelvie.

Reform UK party leader Nigel Farage on the campaign trail | PA

The push to secure Reform’s first ever seat at Holyrood ahead of the ballot on 5 June has seen the party significantly outspend its rivals when it comes to political adverts on Meta.

According to the tech giant’s database of political ads, Reform has spent between £9,000 and £10,000 this month alone as part of its campaign in the South Lanarkshire seat, focused on a video advert that has been condemned by Scottish Labour as “blatantly racist”.

‘Scummy tactics’

The campaign does not feature Reform’s candidate, Ross Lambie, but instead targets Mr Sarwar, claiming he will “prioritise the Pakistani community”. The ad states that “only Reform UK will prioritise the people of Hamilton, Larkhall, and Stonehouse.”

Labour has hit out at Reform for questioning Mr Sarwar’s “identity, loyalty, and belonging”, with other parties joining the condemnation; the Scottish Liberal Democrats described it as “scummy tactics” while the Scottish Greens said it was “despicable”. Reform has said it has no plans to remove the ad, and rejected the claims of racism.

The Reform ad targeting Anas Sarwar has been condemned as ‘blatantly racist’. Picture: Jane Barlow/PA | Jane Barlow/PA Wire

Meta’s analytics indicate that it has received as many as 600,000 impressions, with users aged 25 to 34 most likely to see the ad compared to other age groups. The ad database also shows that Reform has been specifically targeting voters in Hamilton and Larkhall.

Reform did not respond to enquiries about its use of Meta ads during the by-election campaign, but Kate Dommet, a professor in digital politics at the University of Sheffield, told Scotland on Sunday: “Reform's activity on Facebook isn't surprising - with the party experiencing an upsurge in support in recent local elections, they are looking to maintain their momentum. Whilst Reform is starting to build a party membership and activist base, setting up new local branches, relative to other parties it lacks traditional campaign infrastructure.

“This means they are more reliant on digital than other parties. Reform has had success on Facebook, using unpaid posts to communicate with the electorate using Nigel Farage's Facebook page. Facebook ads allow them to target their message at specific electoral geographies, allowing them to cut through to the voters they are trying to mobilise.”

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The decision by the party to hit out at Mr Sarwar is no coincidence, with Reform’s recent polling causing unrest in Scottish Labour’s ranks. At a council by-election in West Dunbartonshire earlier this month, Reform pushed Labour into third, although the SNP ultimately held the seat.

The University of Sheffield’s Professor Kate Dommett said Reform lacked a traditional party campaign infrastructure. | University of Sheffield

A poll earlier this month from Survation, commissioned by True North Advisors, put Reform slightly ahead of Scottish Labour as the second-largest political party at Holyrood.

According to the poll, the SNP would remain, by far, the biggest group in the parliament, with 33 per cent on the constituency vote and 29 per cent on the regional vote.

Reform polling in second place

Reform came second with 19 per cent on the constituency vote and 20 per cent on the list vote. Labour was close behind with 19 per cent on the first-past-the-post vote but fell slightly with 18 per cent on the regional ballot.

Only last week, meanwhile, a YouGov poll suggested that while Reform is on track to pick up three Westminster seats in Scotland, Labour could lose dozens. Those who could lose their seats to Reform include David Mundell in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale, and John Cooper, former adviser to ex-Scottish secretary Alister Jack.

Despite having no MSPs or Scottish MPs, Mr Farage’s party has pointed to such polls as proof that “a Reform takeover happening across Scotland,” and claimed that it is now “the main opposition to the SNP” in Scotland.

Mr Tice is among those Reform members to have hit the campaign trail in South Lanarkshire, stating last week: “It's now a two-horse race between the SNP and Reform and what we are saying to people is vote Reform, get Reform.”

Asked if his party could win, he added: “It's possible. We surprised everybody in the by-election in Runcorn, which was the sixteenth safest Labour seat. It will be very close. This is a big test.”

While the SNP has run more ads than Reform as part of its own campaign - the party has pushed five ads in May championing its candidate, Katy Loudon - it has spent only minimal sums, ranging from less than £100 on some adverts to between £300 and £400 on others.

Scottish Labour, meanwhile, spent between £1,300 and £1,900 on three ads in May, although none have targeted the upcoming by-election. The vast majority of its spending - went on condemning the SNP’s record on the NHS, asking social media users whether they would choose “a third decade of the SNP or a new direction with Scottish Labour.” Another advert promoted the candidacy of Maureen McGlinchey, who was defeated by the SNP at a West Dunbartonshire Council by-election earlier this month.

The Scottish Tories have spent even less, with an outlay of under £100 promoting the party’s conference at Edinburgh’s Murrayfield Stadium in June.

Elsewhere, the Scottish Greens have spent less than £300 on ads this month, while the Scottish Liberal Democrats have not placed a paid Meta ad since last July.