Exclusive:Nigel Farage's Reform is more of a threat to Labour in Scotland, says Professor Sir John Curtice

Reform is much more of a threat to Labour in Scotland compared to the rest of the UK, according to pollster Professor Sir John Curtice.

In an exclusive interview with The Steamie, The Scotsman’s politics podcast, Sir John said the newly-acquired support for Labour in Scotland in last year’s general election is “vulnerable”.

He says this means Labour are more in danger of losing votes to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK in Scotland, whereas in the rest of the UK most of Reform’s vote is coming from the Conservatives.

Sir John also said the upcoming Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election will give an insight into whether the SNP can see off the challenge of Labour, and that he would not put money on Anas Sarwar becoming First Minister.

Speaking to The Steamie, Sir John said: “The UK Labour government has managed to lose support more rapidly and more heavily than any previously elected government because the electorate has not embraced them, they have no clear story and they made promises on tax - all of these things are very clear weaknesses which are coming home to roost.

University of Strathclyde professor of politics Sir John Curtice. Picture: Leon Neal/Getty Images | Leon Neal/Getty Images

“Because so much of the Labour vote was newly acquired, that vote is more vulnerable than it is south of the Border, and in particular is more vulnerable to the rise of Reform than in south of the Border.

South of the Border, Conservatives in ‘existential’ fight with Reform

“There’s a lot of excitement about the fact Reform is taking seats off Labour and yes they are, but their votes are primarily coming from the Conservatives who are now in an existential fight with Reform.

“South of the Border [the Conservatives] lost about 30 per cent who voted for them last year, on top of the 25 per cent from 2019 who switched to Reform, whereas Labour south of the border are losing 10 per cent.

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“North of the Border, Labour losses to Reform are about 50 per cent above the GB-wide figure.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage speaking after Reform made gains against both Labour and the Conservatives across England in local polls. PIC: PA/PA Wire | Press Association

“Undoubtedly what’s going on is Labour took a lot of unionist votes off the Conservatives at the last election and that was more important to Labour north of the Border.

“They were always more likely to switch to Reform if there was a Reform surge.”

The most recent polling from Survation suggests Reform UK will trump Scottish Labour at the ballot box to become the official opposition in the Scottish Parliament.

This poll predicts Reform will pick up 21 seats, keeping Scottish Labour in third place on 18 seats.

After last year’s resounding victory for Labour in the general election, Labour had been neck-and-neck in the Holyrood polling with the SNP and there were expectations Scottish Labour Mr Sarwar could be put forward as the new First Minister if there was a pro-unionist majority.

However, this scenario looks increasingly unlikely as Labour plummets in the polls on the back of unpopular decisions down in Westminster.

Sir John said: “I am not a betting man, but I wouldn’t put money on Anas Sarwar becoming First Minister.

“The fundamental thing that went wrong for Anas Sarwar was Keir Starmer winning the general election.

All smiles, but Anas Sarwar knows that Keir Starmer is the one calling the shots (Picture: Jeff J Mitchell) | Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

“Despite all the euphoria surrounding Labour in Scotland, because it was the one part of the UK where Labour made significant progress whereas elsewhere the progress was frankly anaemic, two years into the middle of a Westminster government will be a tough gig.”

At the moment the most likely outcome at the ballot box is for the SNP to remain the largest party in Holyrood, albeit on reduced numbers.

SNP benefiting from decline of Labour and the Tories

However, despite the SNP’s narrative this is down to its leader John Swinney steadying the ship, Sir John says the decline of Labour and the Conservatives is at play here.

He told The Steamie: “The lay of the land is the SNP is much less popular than it was in 2021 where they got 47 per cent on the constituency vote.

“They are now running at about 33 per cent, but because of the fragmentation of the unionist vote the SNP are odds-on favourites to run the next Scottish Government, albeit from a weaker parliamentary position than the one they enjoy in the current parliament.

“This is a wonderful example of how a party that for the most part has not made much progress over the last year has seen its prospects transform because its principal opponents have suffered substantial decline.

John Swinney takes a selfie with candidates for the 2026 Holyrood election (Picture: Jane Barlow/PA Wire) | Jane Barlow/Press Association

“Sure the ship is steady in that the SNP is not going down, but this is a crucial reminder in politics that it’s not how popular you are that matters, but how popular you are relative to your opponents.”

The SNP’s fortunes post-2024 will get its first test in three weeks’ time at the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election.

If the nationalists can hold on to the seat, it could be an indication the trajectory is in their favour.

Sir John said: “The seats to look out for in 2026 are the ones where the SNP doesn’t have a comfortable majority - it just so happens the Hamilton by-election is such a seat.

“It will be fascinating and it will give us a clue as to whether or not the SNP can hang onto seats against a Labour challenge.

“And that could primarily determine whether or not we have a pro-independence majority at Holyrood and how strong the SNP’s position is going to be.”

Steps towards a second independence referendum

Getting a pro-independence majority in 2026 is the first of many steps towards the potential of a second independence referendum.

As Sir John sets out in The Steamie, two things need to happen - first, a pro-independence majority is elected to Holyrood. Second, a Labour minority is elected at the next general election, which may need to rely on support from the SNP.

Sir John said: “It has long been my view that the only way a referendum will happen soon is a minority Labour government becomes unpopular in the polls and doesn’t want to face the electorate and the only way of surviving a vote of no confidence is to get the backing of the SNP.

“That’s when deals get done.

“But unless there is a pro-independence majority at Holyrood that can take advantage of having leverage, they need a majority of Holyrood.”

Scottish Labour Deputy Leader Jackie Baillie said: “The UK Labour government is working hard to clean up the mess left behind by a Tory party that destroyed public services, crashed the economy and torched trust in politics.

“Reform is capitalising on the failures of the last Tory government and the current SNP government, but they don’t have the answers Scotland needs.

“The next Scottish Parliament election will be about the chaos the SNP has created in our NHS, their mismanagement of our education system and their shameful cuts to affordable housing in the face of a housing emergency.

“This will be a direct choice between Scottish Labour and the SNP, and only Scottish Labour can put an end to their record of failure and deliver a new direction for Scotland.”