Poll reveals Scottish seats Reform would win while Labour decimated by SNP

A stark poll has suggested Reform would pick up three seats at Westminster north of the Border while Labour would lose dozens of constituencies the party swiped from the SNP last year.

Nigel Farage’s party has claimed the poll shows there is “a Reform takeover happening across Scotland”, adding that they are now “the main opposition to the SNP” despite having no MSPs or Scottish MPs.

The YouGov study puts Reform in the lead on 309 seats across the UK, including three in Scotland. Mr Farage’s party is forecast to take the Aberdeenshire North and Moray East seat off the SNP as well as the Dumfries and Galloway and the Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale constituencies - both held by the Conservatives.

Russell Findlay, Nigel Farage and John Swinney | PA

At last year’s election, the SNP’s Seamus Logan took the Aberdeenshire North and Moray East seat from the Tories, with Douglas Ross losing out. Reform candidate Jo Hart, who came in third place, won 5,562 votes - essentially costing the former Scottish Conservative leader his seat.

David Mundell is forecast to lose his Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale to Reform while John Cooper, former adviser to ex-Scottish Secretary Alister Jack, is forecast to lose his Dumfries and Galloway constituency to Reform.

READ MORE: John Swinney admits Reform surge blame after seeing first-hand support on by-election trail

Overall, Reform’s 309 MPs would be shy of a Commons majority. But Labour would be cut to 138 seats, with just four of the 37 seats won in Scotland last year retained.

The SNP would win back seats lost to Labour, totalling 43 MPs - ahead of the Conservatives on 21, who would be leapfrogged by the Lib Dems, who are forecast to pick up 95 seats.

Labour won all seats in Glasgow at last year’s UK election, but would lose all of them back to the SNP, according to the poll. The only seats Labour would hold onto north of the Border are Ian Murray’s Edinburgh South constituency, Douglas Alexander’s East Lothian seat and the Western Isles - along with Hamilton and Clyde Valley.

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar | Jane Barlow/PA Wire

It is likely that a surge in the share of the vote for Reform could be assisting the SNP at winning back seats from Labour north of the Border.

On Monday, First Minister John Swinney warned about the rise of Reform after seeing support for Mr Farage’s party first-hand on the campaign trail for the SNP at the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election.

The latest poll shows the threat Reform could play to the Conservatives and SNP if a Westminster election was held.

The poll spoke to 1,679 UK adults on May 18 and May 19.

READ MORE: Nigel Farage's Reform is more of a threat to Labour in Scotland, says Professor Sir John Curtice

In Scotland, only 8 per cent of voters would support the Conservatives. The poll also showed Labour’s vote share on 19 per cent north of the Border, just one percentage point ahead of Reform UK, on 18 per cent. According to the poll, the SNP would have 28 per cent of the vote.

A Reform spokesman said: “There is a Reform takeover happening across Scotland. For decades, the main establishment parties have broken their promises — and voters are tired of hearing one thing while watching the government do the opposite.

“We are now the main opposition to the SNP, who have failed the hard-working people of Scotland on every front: a failing NHS, rising taxes, and a political class that is completely out of touch.

“What is clear now is that only Reform can beat the SNP next year and truly deliver for the people of Scotland.”