Hamilton by-election: SNP's bubble 'burst', insists Anas Sarwar, as John Swinney plans Cabinet reshuffle
Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, said the Nationalists have run out of steam.
The leader of Scottish Labour set his sights on gaining scores of seats across the country at next year’s Holyrood election as he celebrated his party’s surprise by-election victory in Hamilton.
Anas Sarwar insisted the SNP’s bubble had “burst” after Davy Russell was elected the new Labour MSP for Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse, winning the seat from the Nationalists.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said the result, which defied the bookies’ odds, showed people had “voted for change”.
The by-election was held following the death earlier this year of Scottish Government minister Christina McKelvie. Labour’s Mr Russell polled 8,559 votes, SNP candidate Katy Loudon took 7,957, while Reform’s Ross Lambie secured 7,088.
First Minister John Swinney told journalists he would “consider the implications of the result”. He is expected to carry out a reshuffle of his Cabinet team in the near future, as Màiri McAllan, the Energy Secretary, returns from maternity leave.
However, Professor Sir John Curtice, the polling expert, said the result was "way below" what Labour needs if the party is to win next year’s Holyrood election.
"If Labour were going to demonstrate that they are on course for Anas Sarwar becoming first minister, then basically they should have more or less matched Christina McKelvie's vote back in 2021,” he said. “They are well short of that."
Ms McKelvie won with a majority of 4,582 in 2021. On Thursday, Labour took the seat by just 602 votes.
"I think the honest truth is that neither Labour nor the SNP can be really particularly happy with this result,” Sir John told The Scotsman. "For Labour, it's well below the ambition they would have had 12 months ago in a by-election then."
Speaking to journalists during a victory rally in Hamilton, Mr Sarwar insisted the by-election contained “a lesson for the pollsters, the pundits, political commentators and the bookies”, adding: “Stop believing John Swinney's nonsense.”
During the campaign, Mr Swinney repeatedly claimed the by-election was a two-horse race between the SNP and Reform.
“The balloon has burst, people have changed their mind,” Mr Sarwar said. “They know the SNP has failed them and they want them out from office. This isn't the steady ship that was promised by John Swinney. They are continuing to go backwards.”
The Scottish Labour leader also referenced comments made by former SNP minister Alex Neil, who said the result “shows the current SNP leadership needs to be replaced urgently”.
Mr Sarwar said: “I don't think it is any surprise that a former Cabinet minister who spent a significant time in both an Alex Salmond government and a Nicola Sturgeon government is now calling for John Swinney's resignation. I don't think that is insignificant. They are done - the bubble is burst.”
Although Mr Russell was elected with fewer votes than the party secured in the seat in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election, the SNP’s support fell from just over 46 per cent of all ballots then to 29.35 per cent in the by-election.
Mr Sarwar said he believed the victory to be “even more significant” than the party’s win in the nearby Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election in October 2023, which he said had been key in helping Labour secure its general election victory in July last year.
“I think in some ways this by-election result is even more significant than the Rutherglen by-election result two years ago,” he said.
“It is right to say, I believe, the result in Rutherglen helped lead the way in helping to elect a UK Labour government and I also believe the by-election result here will help lead the way to elect a Scottish Labour government next year.”
Scottish Labour deputy leader Jackie Baillie said the positive result, although narrow, "turbo-charges" the party's campaign to secure power in 2026.
She said a host of Central Belt constituencies, in areas where Labour swiped seats from the SNP at last year's Westminster election, are "absolutely" in play.
Dame Jackie added: "What we've done here is blown the doors off about what we can achieve and what the people of Scotland want us to do."
Reform UK deputy leader Richard Tice said it was “truly remarkable” his party had secured 26 per cent of the vote.
Elsewhere, Mr Swinney said the SNP was “clearly disappointed”. Speaking to journalists in Edinburgh, he defended his erroneous characterisation of the by-election as a two-horse race.
"I called it as I saw it, and the result essentially demonstrates the trends I was seeing, which is the Labour vote way down and the Reform vote way up,” he said.
The First Minister added: "Last summer, people would have doubted, after the really poor result we had in the UK general election, that the SNP could be back in contention to win a seat like Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse.
"But we were in contention, and we were only 600 votes adrift from winning it. Those dynamics are what I was commenting on and that's what played out in the result.
"It just wasn't enough for us. The trends of that falling Labour vote, rising Reform vote and the SNP vote progressing, which it did, just wasn't enough for us."
He said he would “carefully consider” what he had heard from voters on the doorstep.
“There's nothing quite like being on the doorsteps for several weeks to hear what people are thinking and feeling, and you hear it very directly,” he said. "I'll consider that response and determine exactly how best the Government and the SNP should respond to it."
Mr Swinney added: "The SNP has made progress in this election. It's not as much progress as I would like us to have made, but we've made progress against the backdrop of a really damaging election last summer.”
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