Fergus Ewing: Can veteran Nationalist beat the SNP at Scottish election and win as an independent?

Fergus Ewing has announced he will run as an independent in Inverness and Nairn next year, but what are his chances?

No family has contributed more to the SNP and the independence cause than the Ewing family.

That was the view of James Mitchell, professor of public policy at Edinburgh University and an expert on the party, when I spoke to him back in March for an article about this extraordinary political dynasty.

Winnie Ewing’s victory in Hamilton in 1967 remains one of the defining moments of modern Scottish nationalism. Her son, Fergus, has now set the scene for another remarkable election battle.

Fergus Ewing, pictured in the Scottish Parliament | PA

His announcement that he will run as an independent in Inverness and Nairn next year, standing against the party he has represented in Holyrood since 1999, will cause real concern in the SNP hierarchy.

Mr Ewing, who secured a majority of 9,114 in 2021, has been an outspoken critic of the Scottish Government on a number of issues, not least the lack of progress on dualling the A9 and A96 roads.

He is viewed as a strong local champion, regardless of whether or not you agree with him. He told The Scotsman he is going to put “everything” into the fight.

Fergus Ewing | Colin D Fisher/CDFIMAGES.COM

“Two Fridays ago, it took me two hours to get through Morrisons to do some shopping for four items, and I wasn’t swithering in the aisles,” he said. “It was just people wanting to speak to me.

“It’s easy to overestimate one’s own personal popularity, but I did get a majority of around nine [thousand] or 10,000 for the past three elections and I think I’m in with for a shout. But let the people decide.”

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Can Mr Ewing pull it off? Only three MSPs have ever won on an independent platform. Dennis Canavan scored a spectacular victory in 1999, and again in 2003, after being rejected as a Labour candidate.

Margo MacDonald was repeatedly elected as an independent list MSP after falling out with the SNP, while Jean Turner won Strathkelvin and Bearsden in 2003 following a very specific local campaign centred on Stobhill Hospital.

“I think he’s got a good chance,” said Prof Mitchell. “Not least because a lot of the issues on which he has spoken out against the Government, on which he has been rebellious, have been related to his constituency.

“He has in that sense been a very, very good constituency member, and that can only help him. What is certainly the case is it’s going to damage the SNP, of that there is no doubt.”

Mr Ewing has been campaigning all his life, said Prof Mitchell, while he may also benefit from his family name. His mother was strongly associated with the Highlands and islands. The media interest during the campaign will also help, of course.

“He will have some support in the SNP membership and among the activists as well, so that would not be insignificant,” Prof Mitchell added.

Emma Roddick, who is a list MSP for the Highlands and Islands, has been selected as the SNP candidate for Inverness and Nairn. She was previously a junior minister, but does not enjoy anywhere near the profile of Mr Ewing.

Whatever happens, this will be a fascinating seat to watch.