Why Reform UK were the biggest winners despite coming third in Hamilton by-election

Reform UK are now a serious force in Scottish politics

All parties celebrate a victory, but Labour’s joy at their Hamilton by-election win had an extra edge that perhaps suggested they had privately feared John Swinney’s claim that the seat was a contest between the SNP and Reform would turn out to be true.

However, for all their delight at proving him decisively wrong, a more sober assessment of this unexpected win paints a far less rosy picture for Labour than it might at first suggest. Labour’s Davy Russell may have beaten SNP candidate Katy Loudon – although only by some 600 votes – but the story of this by-election was the 7,088 people who backed Reform UK’s Ross Lambie.

The highly respected pollster, Professor John Curtice, told The Scotsman that the result was "way below" what Labour needs if it is to win next year’s Holyrood election. "I think the honest truth is that neither Labour nor the SNP can be really particularly happy with this result,” he said.

He has also argued the idea that Nigel Farage’s party could never “make the political weather” in Scotland is no longer credible following the Hamilton result.

READ MORE: Davy Russell: Who is the newly elected Scottish Labour MSP from the Hamilton by-election?

Nigel Farage's Reform UK party is the coming force in Scottish politics (Picture: Lia Toby) | Getty Images

Public discontent

The parties that have traditionally dominated Scottish politics have been presented with a wake-up call about the challenge presented by Reform. They now need to do some serious thinking about why Farage and co have become quite so popular, so quickly.

The most obvious answer is widespread discontent about the economy and public services, particularly the NHS’s long waiting lists, and the impression given by the Conservatives and SNP in government that little can be done.

READ MORE: Hamilton by-election results: 'Game on' for Labour to snatch Holyrood power from SNP

Labour’s first year in government at Westminster has not done much to suggest that they have found an answer. Given the extent of the problems, some voters may be still giving them the benefit of the doubt, although that will not last much longer.

In such a situation, a protest or ‘plague on all your houses’ vote is understandable. Democratic governments must deliver for their people or they will eventually find themselves out of power.

Reform’s glib answers to the country’s problems lack any real substance but even false hope can seem attractive to those with none.