Why Labour needs to get its act together to prevent populist takeover

In an interview we publish today, the SNP’s deputy Westminster leader Pete Wishart notes correctly that, after their July general election drubbing, few commentators thought his party would recover in time for the 2026 Scottish Parliament election.

He also correctly identifies the two main reasons why the nationalists’ fortunes have been transformed in just a few months: “the spectacular Labour collapse, with the sense of disappointment of how they’ve governed” and “the changes that John Swinney had made”.

Labour may be trying to get what it sees as ‘tough but necessary’ decisions out of the way early in the parliament, but the risk is that the bitter taste left in voters’ mouths by unpopular policies such as the means-testing of pensioners’ winter fuel payments will prove to be a lasting one. First impressions really do count.

There is a lot riding on the success or failure of Keir Starmer's government (Picture: Benjamin Cremel) | Getty Images

Free Battenberg

The First Minister’s impact has been largely based on playing up issues like child poverty and the economy, while talking less about independence. He has also been able to make good political use of the multi-billion-pound bonanza received by the Scottish Government as a result of Labour’s tax-borrow-and-spend budget, while also criticising one of the main reasons for all the extra cash, the increase in employers’ National Insurance contributions. It’s easy to have one’s cake and eat it, when someone keeps handing you free Battenberg.

Swinney’s current path to continued power is to reassure voters worried about the SNP’s competence in government. There are good reasons to be concerned, given the ongoing ferries fiasco, broken promises about climate change, the inability to dual the A9 on time, the ill-fated deposit return scheme, etc. But Swinney may be able to argue that Labour are worse.

Of course, if Keir Starmer manages to turn things quickly enough, that could change. However, the signs are not encouraging for Labour and it’s hard to see where the good news is going to come from.

The SNP will not be the only beneficiaries if Labour’s troubles continue. Nigel Farage’s Reform UK may have only won five seats in the general election, but their 4.1 million votes suggests they were on the cusp of a breakthrough. And their success has managed to pull the Conservatives towards a more populist approach.

Practical politics

Labour is pursuing a more left-wing agenda than its election campaign suggested, but it is still one rooted in practical politics: trying to ensure the government’s books balance, improve public services, and boost the economy.

If it fails, then Scotland could find itself with populist governments at both Holyrood and Westminster, with a Reform-Conservative coalition possibly able to oust Labour. And as Scotland knows, there are real-world consequences when ministers’ power depends more on whipping up nationalist sentiments than ‘mundane’ concerns about the state of the NHS or education. The fact that these are competing nationalisms would make things considerably worse.

There is a pressing need for sensible, pragmatic, liberal Conservatism, in the style of John Major, to make a comeback. In the meantime, Labour must do better and quickly, or the empty, false promises of populism may lead us into a dangerous future.