Why Labour can't just keep blaming the Tories for the state of the economy

In 1992, a Democratic strategist working for Bill Clinton stressed three messages that activists should focus on ahead of the US presidential election: “change versus more of the same"; "don't forget health care”; and, famously, “it’s the economy, stupid”.

It’s unlikely to be a coincidence that all three were echoed in Labour’s election campaign, with Keir Starmer making particular play of the need for “growth, growth, growth". New figures from the Office for National Statistics showing zero growth between July and September should, therefore, prompt considerable concern in Downing Street.

Given the state of the country in July, there is some justification for blaming the Conservatives. And it was not until Labour’s first Budget in October that Labour really put its stamp on the economy, for better or worse.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves says fixing the economy will be a 'huge' challenge (Picture: Dan Kitwood) | Getty Images

Responding to the figures, Chancellor Rachel Reeves said the “challenge we face to fix our economy and properly fund our public finances after 15 years of neglect is huge”. The Budget, she said, would “deliver sustainable long-term growth, putting more money in people's pockets through increased investment and relentless reform”. However, unless the economy improves, voters will eventually tire of their political leaders who blame others while promising good times ahead.

The SNP government now has billions of pounds extra to spend thanks to Labour’s tax-raising Budget. However, John Swinney was still able to criticise Labour for making “mistakes” that had led to the “deeply alarming” lack of growth. And he was quite right to describe the increase in employers’ National Insurance contributions as “a tax on jobs”.

The CBI warned business expectations for growth were now at their weakest since Liz Truss’s calamitous term of office. Alpesh Paleja, its interim deputy chief economist, said the latest CBI surveys “suggest that the economy is headed for the worst of all worlds – firms expect to reduce both output and hiring, and price growth [inflation] expectations are getting firmer”.

Faced with this situation, Reeves and Starmer must not be overly stubborn in sticking to their plan. Finding new ways to boost business confidence – rather than talking the economy down – would be a good place to start.