Analysis

John Swinney's simple political strategy to save the SNP, as 2025 looms as the critical year

Both Labour and the SNP will seek to seize the narrative in a crucial year for Scottish politics

John Swinney has a deceptively simple political strategy. So simple, in fact, it can be boiled down to a basic equation: hope plus delivery equals trust.

First, you tell voters what you will do to make things better. Then you deliver on your pledges, and in doing so win back trust.

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"We have an offering that's really solid, very specific and very clearly defined," a source close to the First Minister said. "And now we have to deliver it."

It’s not exactly rocket science. You might even call it the basic recipe for political success of any kind. But contained within it is an admission that voters have lost trust in the party, and that the hardest part of the equation - delivery - has been lacking.

John Swinney and Anas SarwarJohn Swinney and Anas Sarwar
John Swinney and Anas Sarwar | Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

The coming year will be crucial in determining the future landscape of Scottish politics. All eyes will be on the next Holyrood election, which is due to be held in 2026. The starting gun has already been fired and the long race has begun.

Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, fancies himself as the next first minister. But Sir Keir Starmer’s rocky first few months in power in Westminster have hit the party in Scotland, and there are internal frustrations over UK policies.

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Meanwhile, Mr Swinney has managed to steady the SNP ship after a stormy period dominated by damaging headlines and scenes better suited to an episode of Taggart.

The SNP lost all but a handful of MPs at the general election in July, while Labour returned 37 in Scotland, up from just one in 2019. But since then, the picture has improved for Mr Swinney’s party.

The recent Scottish Budget was nakedly political. First, the SNP attempted to wrongfoot Labour by announcing plans to reintroduce winter fuel payments for all pensioners north of the Border from next year.

First Minister John Swinney looks on as Finance Secretary Shona Robison presents the Scottish Government's Budget. Picture: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty ImagesFirst Minister John Swinney looks on as Finance Secretary Shona Robison presents the Scottish Government's Budget. Picture: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images
First Minister John Swinney looks on as Finance Secretary Shona Robison presents the Scottish Government's Budget. Picture: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

Then it promised to scrap the two-child benefit cap. The latter was a particularly clever piece of political manoeuvring, given it had minimal impact on spending plans and will not come into play until 2026 - the election year.

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The Budget’s passage through Holyrood will mark the first big political moment of 2025. The SNP operates as a minority administration and so needs support from outwith the party to get its plans through the Scottish Parliament.

Talks are ongoing, but some kind of agreement with the Liberal Democrats is thought to be the most likely route forward. MSPs will vote in February. Failure to pass a Budget could ultimately trigger the collapse of the government and a snap election, although this seems unlikely, if only because it would be spectacularly messy.

The SNP will then seek to spend the rest of the year proving it can deliver. That will mean making progress on key pledges such as reducing NHS waiting times.

It will also mean scrapping the two-child benefit cap by early 2026. The UK government might act first, of course, but the SNP can then claim to have pushed Sir Keir into taking action.

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Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer works on board a Government plane as he travels to Rio de Janeiro, Brazil to attend the G20 summitPrime Minister Sir Keir Starmer works on board a Government plane as he travels to Rio de Janeiro, Brazil to attend the G20 summit
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer works on board a Government plane as he travels to Rio de Janeiro, Brazil to attend the G20 summit | Stefan Rousseau/PA Wire

Holyrood watchers expect a reshuffle of Mr Swinney’s top team at some point as he puts his party on an election footing.

Meanwhile, Labour will want to seize back the political momentum, with a speech by Mr Sarwar on January 6 setting the tone for the coming 12 months. Insiders say the party will hammer home the “simple choice” facing voters: more of the same with the SNP, or a new direction under Labour.

“Their record is not a strength for them,” one senior Labour figure said. “It’s a weakness. And we will look to exploit it to win.”

Some believe Mr Sarwar needs to do more to set out his vision for Scotland. What sort of government would he lead? What would he do differently, and how?

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Elsewhere, the Tories will continue to feel the pressure from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, which polls suggest could win around a dozen MSPs in 2026.

There will be some big legislative moments, too. Liberal Democrat MSP Liam McArthur is taking forward plans to legalise assisted dying in Scotland, and a final vote could take place in Holyrood before the summer.

It is the third attempt to pass such a law in Scotland, and there are strong emotions on both sides of the debate. Key figures such as Mr Swinney and his predecessor Nicola Sturgeon have yet to make up their minds.

The latter will publish her memoir in August, which is sure to cause a stir. Will she draw back the curtain on her time in power and her spectacular falling out with Alex Salmond? Or will the former first minister remain something of a closed book?

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Finally, there are what Harold Macmillan called “events, dear boy, events”.

The impact of Donald Trump’s second stint in the White House remains to be seen, but there are real fears over damaging tariffs hitting Scotland’s whisky industry. A 25 per cent tariff was introduced in 2019 and reportedly cost the whisky sector £600 million over the 18 months it was in place.

But as one senior government figure put it, the “biggest grenade in Scottish politics” remains Operation Branchform. The police investigation into the SNP’s funding and finances has yet to draw to a close, three-and-a-half years after launching.

Peter Murrell, Ms Sturgeon’s husband and the former chief executive of the SNP, was charged in connection with the embezzlement of funds from the party back in April.

Will 2025 finally see a resolution to this long-running saga? Your guess is as good as mine.

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