Are we going to war in 2025? If so, UK is woefully unprepared

Let us hope that the nadir of European delusion was reached on December 7 when a TV commentator at the reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris wondered aloud whether US President-elect Donald Trump’s yellow tie and blue suit should be taken as a positive signal that he would not abandon Ukraine.

Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte suffered no such illusions. Two weeks earlier he had met Trump in Palm Beach, Florida. According to a senior Nato official in Brussels, he emerged from that meeting with a sense of profound shock. Rutte pondered whether a European commitment to spending 3 per cent of GDP on defence would satisfy the incoming US administration or whether 4 per cent would be required. He has since sounded a clarion call to allies to adopt a wartime mindset.

Since then there has been a flurry of activity. Sir Keir Starmer visited Estonia to meet British troops and to attend a summit meeting of the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF), a grouping of northern European members of Nato (UK, Netherlands, the five Nordic countries and the three Baltic States) where he commented: “I think all of us have to put in more capability into Ukraine by way of equipment.”

Ukraine is struggling to stop slow but steady advances by Russian troops (Picture: Roman Pilipey) | AFP via Getty Images

UK forces may only last weeks of war

Britain is regarded as the leader of the JEF but a senior Estonian has told me that London’s position is regarded with increased scepticism. Unlike Poland which has matched its condemnation of Russia with substantially enhanced military spending, Britain “has talked a good game” without underpinning the words with military capability. He commended the former Defence Secretary Ben Wallace for the training of Ukrainian forces since 2014 and for the provision of NLAW anti-tank missiles early in the campaign and the subsequent provision of long-range Storm Shadow missiles. However Wallace had run Britain’s own armed forces into the ground and failed to reprovision the ammunition stocks provided to Ukraine.

The new veterans’ minister Al Carns recently estimated that Britain could only sustain a war lasting six months. However most observers doubt that British forces could survive more than a few weeks. One small example. Britain has only 213 Challenger 2 tanks whereas Ukraine has lost over 5,000 tanks in under three years.

The British Strategic Defence Review (SDR) is being watched closely by both the JEF and Nato. Although chaired by a highly regarded former Nato Secretary General, George Robertson, nobody is under any illusions of the tight budgetary parameters within which he is operating. British defence spending of 2.3 per cent of GDP may seem reasonable but it includes the nuclear deterrent which eats into the resources available for conventional forces. The evident need for Britain to have some basic defences against incoming missiles and some improved drone capability means that there will be nothing left to put Britain onto a credible war footing.

Starmer and media ignoring dangers

Starmer did not even include Ukraine amongst his six priorities in his “reset” speech on December 5, and his opponents and the press did not even pick the Prime Minister up on that point, preferring instead to comment on the absence of migration targets. Nothing better reflects an inability or unwillingness to bring the realities of the Ukraine situation into the domestic political arena.

Europe will be hard pressed to get a seat at the table if Trump opens negotiations with Putin. Europe was barely consulted about the evacuation of Afghanistan. The only way to be taken seriously by the US administration would be to declare a transformational change to European defence and to volunteer to take over the bulk of the costs of the Ukraine war in return for keeping the US embedded in Nato and the continued provision of key US capabilities such as heavy airlift and intelligence. This could be a minimum requirement for changing Trump’s mind and would be far more effective if offered upfront, rather than extracted under duress.

It is bizarre that the future of European security relies almost entirely on the whims of one highly unpredictable man. Persuading Trump of the importance of Nato and of defeating Putin in Ukraine has become a crucial race to be won against sceptics such as Vice President-elect JD Vance and hostile members of Nato such as Hungary. Europe needs to select its best team to deliver the necessary persuasion and that probably means Mark Rutte being assisted by Georgia Meloni of Italy and Donald Tusk of Poland. However words will not impress Trump as much as a firm commitment to increased defence spending.

Putin thinks he’s winning

Starmer has taken a risk in replacing the highly effective British Ambassador in Washington, Karen Pierce, with Lord Peter Mandelson. Mandelson is a political heavyweight and a canny operator but there are many aspects to his politics which Trump detests. And will Mandelson have the humility to involve Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage in what must be viewed as a national priority: to prevent Trump handing Putin a diplomatic victory as a reward for his military incompetence and political ineptitude?

Finally, what happens if Putin refuses to come to a land-for-peace deal in 2025? From his point of view, he is winning in Ukraine, albeit at a snail’s pace and taking massive casualties. Ukraine is running out of manpower and beginning to lose heart. France and Germany are in political disarray. Having experienced a setback in Syria, Putin may be in no mood for compromise.

What would Nato do if Russian troops were to break though Ukrainian defences and suddenly (like the British army in 1918) start advancing 20 miles rather than 20 yards each day. What if Mykolaiv and Odesa, on the Black Sea coast, fall and Russian troops set off towards Moldova or if they cross the Dnipro River and head north-west towards Kyiv?

Tim Willasey-Wilsey is visiting professor of war studies at King’s College London and senior associate fellow at think tank RUSI. He is a former senior British diplomat.