The reason why populists are so thin-skinned reveals how to defeat them

Nigel Farage is an ally of Donald Trump despite the US President-elect's 'America First' policy (Picture: Brendan Smialowski) | AFP via Getty Images

Apart from the odd “happy Christmas” at Prime Minister’s Questions, there was little in the way of a festive cheer at Westminster this week. The UK Government’s decision to drop promises to Waspi women about their pensions, the increase in inflation and the overall feeling that the government has not exactly hit the ground running has led to a sense of doom and gloom among Labour MPs as we head into the Christmas recess.

It isn’t helped by Labour losing ground in the UK polls having already slipped behind the SNP in Scotland. There is not an election due for some time, but it certainly didn’t help the mood in parliament that things are not going well for this, still, new government.

The latest polls in the UK make grim reading for the two biggest Westminster parties. The Conservatives have made very little progress and Labour’s support has slipped dramatically since their general election win. The main beneficiaries, certainly south of the Border, appear to be the Reform UK party with recent polls showing them within touching distance of the other two and all three registering support of mid-20s per cent. Given the vagaries of first-past-the-post, that split could lead to the breaking of this electoral system, one which is already creaking given the disproportionate result of this year’s election and Labour winning a third of the vote but two thirds of the seats.

Those nerves have been exacerbated by reports that Elon Musk is considering a donation worth tens of millions of pounds to Reform. This would be an unprecedented injection of cash designed to break the funding model for parties in the UK, where elections are won, and lost, by sums that are comparatively low to those in the USA. It would make those millions made by donors, many in the House of Lords, look paltry in comparison.

The Westminster parties should be concerned. This year’s general election has led to little in the way of policy change. The disappointment is cross-sector and inter-generational, with the winter fuel allowance virtually scrapped and the two-child cap, which is a significant driver in child poverty, remaining. Arguing that the Scottish Government should mitigate its decisions in areas where Westminster has responsibility underlines Labour’s weakness.

There are some who view Reform’s rise with a sense of inevitability. However, as an editorial in this newspaper and the First Minister highlighted this week, there is nothing inevitable in politics and their arguments should be tackled head on. Rather than leaning into and sympathising with their arguments, we should recognise how shallow they are.

Benefits of migration

Let’s take the thorny issue of migration. No one is arguing for no control. However, the language and politics of the migration debate is damaging and divisive. All our families have benefited from migration at some point, my own family comes from Ireland and further back, Norway, for example.

Many Scots benefit from emigration. These are key drivers in our economy and the wider international pool is a driver of excellence in our higher education sector and innovation in business. Migration helps the economy and makes us all better off, and always has done.

Nigel Farage and others used the desperate plight of refugees fleeing Assad’s regime in Syria to make the case against migration during the Brexit debate. Yet since leaving the EU, the UK’s migration figures have gone up. At the same time, UK citizens have lost rights and now have fewer than anyone else in Western Europe, with young people especially badly affected.

Add to that the impact on business with the government’s Office for Budget Responsibility stating that Brexit hit GDP by 4 per cent and the Labour Mayor of London estimating that leaving the EU has meant a £40 billion loss to public finances. All at a time when Labour says it can’t afford payments to the most vulnerable in society, cuts that will drive poverty and disillusion with politics.

Climate science dismissed

On wider questions of security, Farage has expressed his admiration for Vladimir Putin. Similarly, he has maintained his alliance with Donald Trump, whose America First policy will do the UK no favours. Furthermore Trump still accepts no responsibility for the mob that stormed the US Capitol in an effort to overturn a democratic election.

Reform politicians have consistently challenged the science around climate change. Reform’s chair Richard Tice has said that “we need to challenge the climate change nonsense” and his colleague, Rupert Lowe MP, denied that climate change had caused devastating wildfires in Australia, all counter to the overwhelming evidence.

And here’s the thing. Reform MPs, like other populists such as Boris Johnson and Donald Trump, rarely provide any evidence for their assertions. Simply sympathising with their arguments or failing to take them on, be it on migration, Brexit, Putin or climate change grants a credibility that is undeserved and damaging.

Empty promises

There are politicians who, like John Swinney, Sadiq Kahn and Caroline Lucas who have challenged these assertions. However, while Labour and the Tories leave it to others, Reform will avoid scrutiny, and the disinformation and division will persist. The Scottish Conservatives’ focus on taking free bus travel away from refugees, a tiny part of Scotland’s budget, was as pernicious as it was predictable.

Tackling the far-right is not done by pandering to them, that simply increases their power, whilst damaging one’s own society, as has been the case in the UK. The lesson from across Europe and the rest of the world is to take them on.

The arguments of populists are brittle which is why they are so thin-skinned. Their arguments are as empty as their promises and maybe, if we argue for what we believe in, next Christmas there might be more to be cheerful about.

Stephen Gethins is the MP for Arbroath and Broughty Ferry