Putin sees his path to victory, in Ukraine and beyond, through populists in the West

At the start of the year, I wrote in this column about the upcoming German elections. Those elections have now come and gone – and we are all reckoning with the results.

I wrote then that the only person left in Germany who thought that current Chancellor Olaf Scholz could win was probably Olaf Scholz himself, and his centre-left coalition has indeed taken a shellacking.

The news that set many eyebrows sky-high, of course, was the rise in support for the far-right. With more than 20 per cent of the vote, the AfD will be the second-biggest party in the German parliament. They may have no chance of being part of the government, but they are going to be a powerful and vocal bloc.

Vladimir Putin is trying to sow distrust and division in the hope of picking Western democracies apart, piece by piece (Picture: Alexander Kazakov) | POOL/AFP via Getty Images

Putin’s attacks on democracy

For decades, German politics has been a model of moderation and a society thoroughly inoculated against the appeal of the far-right. That this can no longer be taken for granted should be a lesson to all nations: no one is immune to this threat. We have to respond accordingly.

The news from Germany is even more poignant as we mark the third anniversary of Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine. While Putin wages his direct war on the Ukrainian people – and we should always be clear that it is they who suffer the worst of his aggression on our behalf – he has not been shy about advancing indirect attacks on liberal democracies across the world.

Putin sees his path to victory, in Ukraine and beyond, through funding, flattering and facilitating far-right politicians. He wants to rewrite the narrative and rewire our politics in his favour. That is true in Germany, in the United States – and right here in the United Kingdom.

Scotland is not immune

By sowing distrust and division – supporting the far-right and others who would tear down international institutions and mutual defence agreements – Putin hopes to pick apart Western democracies piece by piece. Nothing helps him more than a blithe assumption that “it cannot happen here”.

There is sometimes a temptation to pretend that Scotland is immune to far-right and populist arguments. Even if we set aside the longstanding populist streak in the nationalist movement – however difficult to ignore as hardcore activists rage once more this week about the “McCrone conspiracy” – all the latest polls suggest that Reform could win a substantial share of seats in Holyrood next year.

If that comes to pass, then they will bring the same noxious ideology to the heart of Scottish politics. No one is immune to this threat, but the success of the pro-Putin far-right is not inevitable either – here, in Germany or anywhere else.

The only way to defeat the far-right is to face it head-on. That means rejecting their politics of nationalism, isolationism and division, and working more closely with our democratic friends – in the UK, in Europe and around the world.

Knowing what is needed does not make it easy – but standing up for liberal democracy has never been more essential.

Alistair Carmichael is the Scottish Liberal Democrat MP for Orkney and Shetland