How Scotland's US diplomatic base will deal with Donald Trump's White House return

It promises to be one of the greatest tests of realpolitik since, well, the last time. How exactly does Scotland engage with Donald Trump in the wake of his extraordinary political resurrection, and what pitfalls and potential opportunities could lie ahead?

With the dust settling on an historic US election result, politicians and policymakers are mulling over exactly how to deal with an incoming administration helmed by a convicted felon seemingly intent on ushering in a new era of American protectionism. As has been the case throughout his turbulent political career, no convention or norm is safe from Mr Trump. And on this side of the Atlantic, a stark new reality is dawning.

While Sir Keir Starmer’s UK Labour government has made clear the importance of nourishing the so-called ‘special relationship’, the stakes are just as high for Scotland’s devolved administration. The US is a crucial trading partner with Scotland, making up 17 per cent of the value of its international goods exports. It is also the foremost investor here, responsible for 27 foreign direct investment projects - around a fifth of the total - last year.

But at a time when the Scottish Government is trying to bolster the value of the country’s international exports to the equivalent of 25 per cent of GDP by 2028, a second Trump term may represent a disruptive, if not disastrous, development.

Having threatened to impose a flat tariff of up to 20 per cent on all imports from other countries, with an even steeper levy of 60 per cent on Chinese goods, the potential economic damage to the likes of Scotland’s salmon, cashmere and Scotch whisky sectors is immense.

Donald Trump’s return to power in the US leaves Scotland and the UK facing difficult diplomatic questions. Picture: Getty | Getty Images

During Mr Trump’s first stint in the Oval Office, the latter industry was hit with a 25 per cent tariff on single malt amid a row over aircraft subsidies. In the course of just 18 months, the Scotch Whisky Association (SWA) said more than £600 million in exports to the US were lost. The tariff was eventually suspended, but not before extensive politicking impressed upon the Americans the damage that was being wrought.

During the row, the SWA engaged expensive Washington DC lobbyists to impart its message, paying around £60,000 to the Smith-Free Group to engage with the executive office of the president, the US Treasury, and US Department of Commerce, as well as politicians across the Senate and House of Representatives.

One source said meetings had already been held this year with members of the US Congress to discuss tariffs, and the engagement would “intensify” in the wake of last week’s election. No doubt with good reason; the suspension is only temporary, and the 25 per cent tariff is due to be reinstated in June 2026, midway through Mr Trump’s second term. Ensuring that nightmare scenario does not come to pass, say some well-placed observers, will be the immediate priority for Scottish power brokers.

Ian Houston, the son of an engineer father who emigrated from Glasgow to San Francisco in search of a better life, is one of the more prominent and dynamic members of the GlobalScot business network.

The organisation was established by Scottish Enterprise at the turn of the century to foster closer ties between influence makers and Scottish businesses, entrepreneurs and professionals. Indeed, Mr Trump himself was a high-profile representative in the same network until 2015, when his membership was rescinded by the-then first minister Nicola Sturgeon in the aftermath of his call for Muslims to be banned from entering the US.

“The difficult relationship [with the US] in recent years related to trade and whisky,” reasons Mr Houston. “The tariffs that were put in place saw Scotland get caught up in a larger debate around Airbus, Boeing, Europe and subsidies, and Scotland really suffered.

“While the tariffs were lifted, that agreement was only for five years, so it’s important to establish relationships now, not just with the Trump administration, but the layers of professionals who represent the US diplomatically.”

Ian Houston said the tariff impacting single malt Scotch had led to a 'difficult' relationship. Picture: Ian Houston | Ian Houston

As a former executive director of the American Foreign Service Association who has also served as a legislative aide in the US Congress, Mr Houston’s connections in Washington DC are as extensive and long-standing as his love of Scotland. Having spent years promoting Scottish interests on Capitol Hill, he said he believed the return of Mr Trump to the White House would require a lot of work behind the scenes to ensure Scotland’s voice is heard.

“Hundreds, if not thousands of people come into a new administration, and that takes time,” he said. “It’s not like in the UK, where there’s a shadow cabinet ready to go. The key individuals to keep in mind for Scotland are the secretary of state and the ambassador to the UK. Having a dialogue directly with them about what Scotland offers is key, but that will take time.”

According to other seasoned public affairs professionals, the trick will be appealing to the new president’s interests. “Trump loves when countries buy American goods, but hates when they run trade deficits, which obviously work against each other,” explained Michael Martins, who worked for the US State Department at the US embassy in London during Mr Trump’s initial term, in a blog for the British Foreign Policy Group.

“So be creative - the UK, for example, runs a goods deficit, but a services surplus, so you can guess what gets discussed at bilateral meetings.”

One central player in Scotland’s relationship with the incoming Trump administration will be Colin Gray, head of the Scottish Government’s USA office in Washington DC, and the nation’s de facto diplomat, working alongside the British ambassador. Mr Gray is a former reporter with the News of the World in Glasgow, who wrote about crime, showbusiness, and politics during his stint with the now wound-up newspaper. A command of all three of those topics could well prove advantageous when dealing with the 47th president.

Having left journalism behind, Mr Gray, from Perth, carved out a successful career in the British diplomatic service, taking up a post in the-then Foreign and Commonwealth Office’s Iberia office on Gibraltar-related issues before becoming a spokesman for the British embassy in Seoul, and working with Britain’s ambassador in Peru.

He went to the US three years ago to work as the deputy consul general in Atlanta. But since August, he has been in situ in the US capital, based in the British embassy on Massachusetts Avenue.

The Scottish Government's USA office is based in the British Embassy in Washington DC. Picture: Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty | AFP via Getty Images

It is a role that involves engaging with senior US politicians and diplomats, while also providing insights and advice to Scottish ministers and civil servants as to how best they can deal with their American counterparts. Mr Gray has impressed in how he has promoted Scottish interests since taking up office, hosting delegations from St Andrews and Aberdeen universities, and meeting representatives from the congressional Friends of Scotland caucus.

A big part of his job will also be reassuring wider Scottish interests in the US, and ensuring Mr Trump’s re-election does not harm them. One notable example is the National Trust for Scotland, which has an independent American not-for-profit corporation capable of raising significant sums for conservation work - around £550,000 a year, according to the latest accounts. With the likes of the Royal Conservatoire and numerous universities also boasting similar arrangements, the mission of appealing to well-heeled Americans with Scottish heritage - especially at a time when Scotland’s public purse is moth bitten - must transcend discord around Mr Trump.

Indeed, Mr Houston said he believed there were soft power levers that could be pulled by appealing to Mr Trump’s Scottish heritage, while also refreshing the narrative of how Scotland is perceived by Americans. “It’s important to emphasise the real modern opportunities that exist in Scotland across tech, energy, its universities, and not the Disneyland version,” he said. “People who have that diaspora connection are not fully understanding of what Scotland offers, and I think that would relate to Trump. I think his motivation is golf - he thinks golf, Scotland.”

There are realistic expectations on the part of the Scottish Government of what Mr Gray and his colleagues in Washington can deliver. “It’s a very small team and the access is largely driven by the British Embassy,” one source said. “With the geopolitical situation as it is, Scotland isn’t going to be at the front of the queue. It isn’t going to be at the back either.”

Even so, it is not inconceivable that First Minister John Swinney or other senior Scottish ministers could meet with Mr Trump in an official capacity. The First Minister’s promise to “welcome” Mr Trump if he visited Scotland stopped short of an invitation to his mother’s homeland - a proposition that would send the Scotland Office into meltdown. But compared to Ms Sturgeon’s barely concealed loathing for the 78 year-old, it is a small, but significant shift.

Former first minister Henry McLeish during his meeting with then US preisdent George W Bush in the Oval Office. Picture: Stephen Jaffe/AFP/Getty | AFP via Getty Images

One oft-forgotten curio of modern Scottish political history is the meeting the-then first minister, Henry McLeish, secured with George W. Bush in the White House in April 2001. Mr McLeish used the 45-minute appointment in the Oval Office to champion the nation’s tourist industry, and was said to have left Mr Bush impressed.

If Mr Swinney were to meet with Mr Trump, whether on Scottish soil or across the pond, there would be no shortage of hurdles to overcome.

Scottish ministers remain under pressure to consider an Unexplained Wealth Order against the Trump Organisation’s patriarch and the source of the funding for his Scottish golf resorts. The issue flared up again after Mr Trump was found guilty earlier this year by a New York jury of falsifying business records, and as recently as last month, Mr Swinney and Lord Advocate Dorothy Bain KC received correspondence from the campaign group, Avaaz, criticising the “complacency” of Scottish authorities.

Then there is the million dollar question of what exactly Mr Trump might want in return if his administration moved to allay Scottish concerns, especially around the whisky tariff. During his first term, one US media report - subsequently denied - claimed Mr Trump had nudged the US ambassador to Britain to help return golf’s prestigious Open Championship to his Turnberry property in South Ayrshire. As things stand, the R&A, which is set to welcome a new chief executive, has yet to announce the Open venue for 2027, a year that marks the 50th anniversary of the famous Duel in the Sun, when Jack Nicklaus and Tom Watson battled on the revered Ailsa links.

One source familiar with Mr Trump’s Turnberry business said it was very unlikely the R&A would bring the tourney back there while he remained in the White House. “The Scottish Government has no practical influence over that, and even if it did, it rightly wouldn’t seek to exert it,” the source explained. “That doesn’t mean Trump or his people won’t ask.”

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