What Scotland need to qualify for Euro 2024 as attention turns to Norway v Spain

Scotland's hopes of becoming the first nation to join hosts Germany as next summer's European Championships were dashed by a controversial 2-0 defeat to Spain on Thursday night.

A point would have been enough for Steve Clarke's side to secure a top two finish in Group A and cement their place at Euro 2024 but late goals from Alvaro Morata and Oihan Sancet put paid to those hopes in heartbreaking fashion after a VAR intervention led to Scott McTominay's opener being ruled out.

The Manchester United midfielder fired a stunning free-kick past Unai Simon in the 59th minute to seemingly put Scotland 1-0 ahead but wild celebrations turned to despair when Dutch referee Serdar Gozubuyuk was called over to the VAR monitor.

He subsequently awarded a free-kick to Spain for an apparent foul on the goalkeeper by Jack Hendry, as initially communicated by UEFA, only for the reason behind the decision to be changed to an offside some minutes later.

Scotland's Ryan Christie and team-mates look dejected after Alvaro Morata opens the scoring for Spain. (Photo by Fran Santiago/Getty Images)

This confusion left Scotland fans with a sense of injustice over what might have been although Spain were inarguably the better side on the night and worthy of the three points that moved them into second place in the group.

While deflating for the Tartan Army, the good news is that qualification for the Euros is still very much alive with the prospect of Scotland booking their place without kicking a ball this weekend, or under their own steam in their final two qualifiers next month.

The first opportunity arises on Sunday when Norway host Spain in Oslo. Any result other than a Norway win (i.e Spain win or draw) would ensure Scotland of a place at Euro 2024. Should Erling Haaland and co upset the odds and defeat the Spaniards then all is not lost as it would still be firmly in Scotland's own hands to qualify for the tournament next summer.

A win away to Georgia on November 16 would seal the deal, while a draw would take matters into a final showdown against Norway at Hampden on November 19 with both sides able to finish on 16 points. In this case, Scotland would need to avoid losing to Norway by two clear goals in order to win the overall head-to-head between the sides following their 2-1 win in Oslo in June. A 2-1 home defeat would see the tiebreaker revert to goal difference in all group matches which would almost certainly see Scotland qualify given they are currently on +9 compared to Norway's +3.

A defeat in Georgia – unthinkable given how Scotland have performed so far in this campaign – would mean that Norway could qualify at Scotland's expense with any victory at Hampden as they would finish on 16 points with Scotland stuck on 15.

In any scenario, a draw against Norway at Hampden is enough for Scotland to progress but avoiding such a a nailbiting finale – either by Spain doing them a favour in Norway or by doing it themselves by beating Georgia away – would be a far more appealing prospect.

Scotland also have the fall-back of a guaranteed spot in the Euro 2024 play-offs courtesy of finishing top of their Nations League B group last year but rendering that propsect obselete is now the only outcome to bare thinking about.