Russia coup: Prigozhin 'unlikely to be finished' as Putin's war on Ukraine returns to 'business as usual'

Prigozhin’s story is “unlikely to be finished”, according to a Scottish international security expert, who claims Russia will likely return to “business as usual” following the attempted Wagner coup.

In this handout photo taken from video released by Prigozhin Press Service, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the owner of the Wagner Group military company, records his video addresses in Rostov-on-Don, Russia, Saturday, June 24, 2023. (Prigozhin Press Service via AP)

Russia will likely return to “business as usual” following the recent Wagner mutiny, according to a Scottish expert, and warned the rebellion leader’s story “is unlikely to be finished”.

The greatest challenge to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s more than two decades in power came to an abrupt end after the leader of the Wagner paramilitary organisation ordered his troops to retreat from their march on Moscow.

The organisation’s commander, Yevgeny Prigozhin, will now move to neighbouring Belarus, a Russian puppet state from which Putin launched his unsuccessful attempt to capture the Ukrainian capital Kyiv.

Members of Wagner group looks from a military vehicle in Rostov-on-Don late on June 24, 2023. Rebel mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin who sent his fighters to topple the military leaders in Moscow will leave for Belarus and a criminal case against him will be dropped as part of a deal to avoid "bloodshed," the Kremlin said on June 24.

Professor Rick Fawn, an international security specialist at St Andrews University, said his “hunch is that it’s going to get back to business as usual” following the failed coup.

“The idea of almost a civil war in Russia, of course, would be welcomed,” said Prof Fawn.

“That kind of disaster, on multiple levels, would only have been to the benefit of Ukraine.

“I suspect in part of the deal, the terms of which we don't yet know, this was some of the discussion and Prigozhin, while he's very self serving, is also enough of a Russian pragmatist to be able to talk about what is best in terms of the conflict - so, continuing the conflict.

“The [Russian] Ministry of Defence has made clear that Wagner fighters [many of whom are Russian convicts] are welcome to join the regular ranks in the military - that's part of the ‘get get out of jail’ card that they've been offered.

“So I'm not sure that this rebellion is going to change the dynamics of the conflict.”

Moscow had braced for the arrival of the Wagner forces by erecting checkpoints with armoured vehicles and troops on the city’s southern edge. About 3,000 Chechen soldiers were pulled from fighting in Ukraine and rushed there early on Saturday, state television in Chechnya reported. Crews dug up sections of roads to slow the march.

Wagner troops advanced to just 120 miles from Moscow, according to Mr Prigozhin. But after the deal was struck, he announced that he had decided to retreat to avoid “shedding Russian blood”.

Prof Fawn added that although the conflict may soon return to business as usual, with an “added element of threat to Ukraine”.

“Prigozhin is north of Ukraine now, in Belarus, so we now have some elements of uncertainty in a negative sense from this outcome.

“That's part of the sea change that we've had in 24 hours.

“We went from a situation which, especially to the Ukrainian government, was looking optimistic, to a situation where it looks like Moscow has regained control. It is reordering forces.

“I would expect that the grind of the conflict in eastern Ukraine will now continue, plus a concern of what Prigozhin might get up to in Belarus.”

Prof Fawn further warned that Prigozhin’s story is far from finished.

“Prigozhin can go to Belarus now, but it doesn’t mean in six months that he will still be alive.

“Key for the Kremlin was to neutralise the threat he posed now and to resume the war effort.

“Other opponents have met their fates later on. Prigozhin may now either be very quiet or brainstorm a victory as redemption for this massive transgression.

“It’s unlikely that this story is finished.”