‘Armenia has a herculean challenge ahead’, experts warn, as tens of thousands of refugees from Nagorno Karabakh pour over the border

The breakaway government of Nagorno-Karabakh has announced it will dissolve itself by next year

It has become a too-familiar sight in recent years: families packing up basic belongings and fleeing their homes to take refuge in a neighbouring country.

Now tens of thousands of ethnic Armenians in Nagoro Karabakh have poured over the border into Armenia, after the separatist enclave was taken under the full control of Azerbaijan.

Last week, ethnic Armenian forces agreed to a Russia-brokered ceasefire with Azerbaijan following a two-day military assault on the enclave.

A car of ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh fleeing the enclave this week.

It is estimated that more than half of the separatist ethnic Armenian enclave’s population has arrived in Armenia since Azerbaijan's offensive, with international observers warning of ethnic cleansing of the region – something the Azerbaijani government has refuted.

Dr Sossie Kasbarian, senior lecturer in politics at the University of Stirling, believes no ethnic Armenians will choose to remain in Nagorno Karabakh under Azerbaijani rule and warns the takeover has sparked growing fears for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Armenia itself. In March, Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev made a speech in which he described territory which is part of Armenia as "Western Azerbaijan" during a summit of the Organisation of Turkic States.

"Aliyev has been openly claiming Armenia as ‘Western Azerbaijan’," says Dr Kasbarian. “The lack of action of the international community, as well as the unqualified support of Turkey for the violent conquest of Nagorno Karabakh, bolsters the potential for further Azerbaijani expansionism and ethnic cleansing.”

She also fears Armenia will struggle, economically, to host the thousands of refugees crossing its borders.

Ethnic Armenians put their belongings on a tractor as they evacuate from Stepanakert. Armenia said on Wednesday that 42,500 refugees have arrived from Nagorno-Karabakh since Azerbaijan's lightning offensive, representing a third of the separatist ethnic Armenian enclave's population.

The United Nations refugee arm, UNHCR, has said it is working with the Armenian government to support the influx of refugees.

“The Armenian state is in a highly vulnerable position while doing its best to respond to a serious humanitarian crisis.” Dr Kasbarian says. “With a population of less than three million, a struggling economy and a society that is scarred from the losses from the 2020 war, Armenia has a herculean challenge ahead.

"This wave of Armenians from Nagorno Karabakh joins previous waves of displaced Karabakh Armenians, along with sizeable groups of refugees and migrants from Syria since the Syrian civil war, but also Azerbaijan, Lebanon and Iran, and most recently from Ukraine and Russia.”

On Thursday, the breakaway government of Nagorno-Karabakh has announced it will dissolve itself and said that the unrecognised republic will cease to exist by next year.

Azerbaijani ambassador to the UK, Elin Suleyman on a visit to Edinburgh earlier this year.

Dr Kasbarian, co-editor of The Armenian Diaspora and ‘Stateless Power’: Collective Identity in the Transnational 20th century, says Armenians have “every reason to fear the ‘reintegration’ that Azerbaijan will impose”.

Earlier this week, businessman Ruben Vardanyan, who led the separatist Nagorno Karabakh government until February, was arrested as he tried to leave the enclave for Armenia.

"Any statements from the Azerbaijani state cannot be taken in good faith,” she says. “They mask an authoritarian regime that is intent on erasing Armenian presence in the region, as well as their religious and cultural past, which continues to be systematically destroyed, appropriated and erased.

"Those who are permitted to leave will leave for their own safety. This is ethnic cleansing.”

Dr Kevork Oskanian, an expert in the region from the University of Exeter, says he believes the enclave would “likely be ethnically cleansed of its Armenian inhabitants within a matter of weeks”.

He adds: “It remains to be seen how Armenia – a country of at most 2.8 million – will be able to absorb such a massive inflow of refugees, many of whom are in a dire situation; a concerted effort at providing humanitarian aid should be the main priority.”

Azerbaijan’s ambassador to the UK, Elin Suleymanov, disagrees that his government is participating in ethnic cleansing.

"We don’t encourage Armenians to leave,” he tells The Scotsman, pointing to his government’s offering of citizenship and integration into Azerbaijan and a dedicated website set up for ethnic Armenians in Nagorno Karabakh to register and to allow them to claim benefits.“We can not keep them there by force, we cannot close the road and say ‘you should stay at any cost’. Armenia has asked us to provide them with buses so they can leave safely, but then we are accused of ethnic cleansing.

"It is an exodus and I understand the reasons they feel uncertain. That’s natural. But the dilemma is, what can we do?”

On Thursday, Jeyhun Bayramov, foreign affairs minister of Azerbaijan, said ethnic Armenians should remain in the enclave to create an “emerging society”.

"There is so much negativity in propaganda,” says Mr Suleymanov. “There's so much outside pressure, accusing everybody of genocide and bloodthirsty things. So I think that affects and traumatises the population, and as a result, unfortunately, many decide to leave.”

Established as an Armenian-majority autonomous oblast within Azerbaijan during Soviet times, tensions flared in the late 1980s and war broke out in 1991 between the newly independent Armenia and Azerbaijan after the collapse of the Soviet Union. A ceasefire between 1994 and 2020 saw the enclave under de-facto Armenian rule.

"The Karabkh region is not purely Armenian as there was an ethnic cleansing in the 1990s," says Mr Suleyman. “It used to be a diverse region in and before the 1990s and then Azerbaijanis were expelled. Perhaps that notion of being living in a truly mono ethnic environment does not allow for someone else come in and be neighbours. But the truth is, we have been neighbours for centuries and we will remain neighbours for centuries.”

He hopes a peace agreement will be signed in the coming weeks.

“Hopefully the Armenians in Karabakh could be a part of the peaceful society with everybody else,” he says. “Perhaps it is too early to talk about this no w. Emotions are high, the pressures are high and the tensions remain, so it is difficult to say, but we will do what we can.”