Analysis

Why polling suggests Reform UK could tip the balance in at least 12 Scotland election seats

Reform UK can be a factor in Scotland, writes Alexander Brown

Reform is on the rise and the Tories should be worried. Labour were already predicted to win a majority before Nigel Farage announced plans to run and things have only got worse.

Polling between the Conservatives and Reform has narrowed, with some even showing Mr Farage’s party ahead of the Conservatives.

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While nobody expects his group to win any more than a handful of seats, this has not stopped Mr Farage – one of the architects of Brexit – announcing a goal to be Prime Minister by 2029.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage could play a deciding factor in some Scottish seats.Reform UK leader Nigel Farage could play a deciding factor in some Scottish seats.
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage could play a deciding factor in some Scottish seats.

In Scotland, however, things are a little different. Reform are not expected to win any seats, but according to polling conducted by Survation Scotland for Best for Britain, it is inarguable they can be a factor.

MRP polling shows they can be the difference in some Scottish seats, with their polling bigger than the lead held in 12 constituencies, including six the Tories win in 2019, and the rest being predominantly those in which the Conservatives finished a close-second behind the SNP.

In Dumfries and Galloway, previously held by outgoing Scotland Secretary Alister Jack, his replacement John Cooper has 0.2 per cent lead over the SNP, based on the polling. Reform are on 2.2 per cent.

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It is the same situation of Reform having bigger polling returns than the lead in other Tory versus SNP seats, including Gordon and Buchan, Perth and Kinross-shire, and Stirling and Strathallan.

In Edinburgh North and Leith, the lead is 0.9 per cent for SNP over Labour, with Reform on 3.7 per cent. In Glasgow East, the SNP lead Labour by 0.4 per cent, with Reform on 2.7 per cent. Glasgow South West has the SNP beating Sir Keir Starmer’s party by 0.3 per cent, with Reform on 3.2 per cent.

It is the same picture in other fights between Labour and the SNP, with Reform beating the MRP lead in Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West, Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke and West Dunbartonshire.

In another nine seats, the margin is within 2 per cent, and considered “close” – something Mr Farage can hope will be built on by his party publishing their manifesto on Monday.

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There’s also an SNP lead in Na h-Eileanan an Iar of 0.4 per cent over Labour, with Reform on 1.4 per cent. However, this possibly seems to massively underplay the significance of Angus MacNeil, a former SNP MP who MRP has on 3.27 per cent, which The Scotsman understands is not reflective of the party's feeling on the ground.

It speaks to why the Survation MRP results should be taken with a pinch of salt. It undervalues independents, and is far less reliable in Scotland than it is in England.

This is a feeling shared by MPs, with several telling The Scotsman it did not reflect their data on the ground, with more than one labelling it “nonsense”. Another called it a “Blairite front”, after the party backed voting Scottish Labour in marginals with the Tories over the SNP.

As such, while all these findings should be weighed up appropriately, it does reflect growing support for Reform. Those tempted to vote for the party could still be the deciding factor in seats all across Scotland.

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