‘Mega poll’ suggests SNP set to hang onto 41 seats at general election as Tories face wipe out

The SNP is on course to remain Scotland’s biggest party following this year’s general election, a new ‘mega poll’ has forecast.

The SNP could hold onto 41 seats at this year’s general election while the Tories would be wiped out north of the Border, according to a ‘mega poll’.

The study of more than 15,000 people points to a record-low polling for the Conservatives, forecast to win less than 100 seats across the UK. Labour, on the other hand, would return 468 MPs, handing Sir Keir Starmer a thumping 286-seat majority in the Commons.

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The MPR poll, conducted by Survation on behalf of Best for Britain, puts Labour on 45 per cent of the vote share with a 19-point lead over the Conservatives, an increase of three points from the campaign group’s previous study at the end of last year.

The SNP and Labour are fighting to be the biggest party in ScotlandThe SNP and Labour are fighting to be the biggest party in Scotland
The SNP and Labour are fighting to be the biggest party in Scotland

The poll, first reported by the Sunday Times, indicates the Tories are on track to win just 98 seats at this year’s general election, with not a single MP returned in Scotland or in Wales. Undecided voters were not accounted for in the survey but represented about 15 per cent of those asked, which is at the lower end of most polls.

The study suggests the SNP will remove all of the Conservatives’ seven MPs and that the SNP will claim the Edinburgh West seat from the LibDems, reversing Christine Jardine’s majority of almost 4,000. The poll also shows that Labour is set to only return 14 MPs north of the Border, a huge improvement from the party’s current two Scottish MPs, but falling short of other projections that forecast Labour becoming the biggest party in Scotland. The poll also forecasts that the SNP will snatch Jamie’s Stone’s marginal seat in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross from the LibDems. The LibDems will cling onto the marginal North East Fife constituency, according to the study.

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The forecast suggests Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is at risk of losing his own seat, the new Richmond & Northallerton constituency, with his lead over Labour less than 2.5 percentage points. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has just a one-point lead over the Liberal Democrats in his new seat of Godalming & Ash, according to the poll.

First Minister Humza Yousaf, Photo: Jane Barlow/PA WireFirst Minister Humza Yousaf, Photo: Jane Barlow/PA Wire
First Minister Humza Yousaf, Photo: Jane Barlow/PA Wire

The SNP has doubled down on its message about making Scotland “Tory free”, stressing the favourable poll shows the party is the main challenger to the Conservatives in Scotland and is on course to remain the biggest party north of the Border.

The SNP's Westminster depute leader, Mhairi Black, said: "This latest poll demonstrates in no uncertain terms that if you want to make Scotland Tory free, you have to vote SNP.

"Voters in Scotland are sick of the Tories, but with both Sir Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak joined at the hip on all major fiscal policies, it's clear that Labour does not offer that alternative.

“It is encouraging to see people across Scotland continue to put their trust in the SNP to deliver for them.

"We won't take a single vote for granted and will keep working hard to stand up and protect Scotland's values.”



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