SNP conference: Yes voters ‘lost confidence in SNP’ with Humza Yousaf ‘nothing like as popular’ as Nicola Sturgeon, Sir John Curtice says

Polling expert Sir John Curtice also suggested support for Labour had been rising before the SNP leadership contest

A body of Yes voters have “lost confidence” in the SNP, with a downturn in support beginning when Humza Yousaf became leader, Sir John Curtice has claimed.

The polling expert explained the party had become less popular following the bitter leadership contest involving former finance secretary Kate Forbes, with the public now much more likely to see the SNP as “divided”.

Speaking at a UK in a Changing Europe event on Tuesday, Sir John suggested the party was still likely to be the biggest in Scotland, but warned the same 20 per cent swing seen in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election would see Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar become first minister.

Former leader Nicola Sturgeon in the conference hall as tributes to her are played on a screen to delegates at the SNP annual conference at the Event Complex Aberdeen (TECA). Picture: Andrew Milligan/PA Wire

Discussing the SNP’s polling, which has seen drop nine points to 36 per cent since the 2019 general election, Sir John said this was not just linked to the arrests of former first minister Nicola Sturgeon and her husband Peter Murrell, the former chief executive of the party.

He said: “The principle period where support for the SNP fell was the announcement that Nicola Sturgeon was going to resign in February this year, and the announcement that Humza Yousaf was the new leader at the back end of the March. It was a pretty fractious leadership contest, with divisions that had already been partly fuelled by the internal debate over the Gender Recognition Bill, but that then exposed wider disagreements within the SNP, which are still continuing.

“People are now much more likely to think of the SNP as being divided than was the case a year ago. The second thing is the SNP have a new leader, and the brutal truth is Humza Yousaf is nothing like as popular as his predecessor, and that includes among the SNP.

“They've had two extremely charismatic leaders, both of whom were very effective at encouraging support. I would suggest that actually we should be looking much more at the state of the SNP as to where the problem arises. There is a body of those who still vote yes who have lost confidence in the SNP as an organisation.

“A substantial gap has opened up between support for independence and support for the SNP”.

Sir John’s analysis follows voters branding Mr Yousaf “useless” by voters in a 'word cloud' poll run by Savanta for The Scotsman.

Despite this, the University of Strathclyde professor insisted the SNP was still on track to be the biggest party after the next general election.

He said: “Most polls still have the SNP ahead, though only marginally. As a result, if that polling were correct, then the SNP would still be favourites to win a majority of seats in Scotland, though the Labour party would potentially pick up around 20 seats, and that does have implications for the outcome of the UK election overall.

"The more seats the Labour party can pick up in Scotland, the less the lead over the Conservatives they need for an overall majority. At the moment, the Labour party faces some pretty adverse geography on that count.

"The Labour party was already running at 30 or so per cent by the end of the last calendar year. Labour’s progress during the course of this year has been rather more minimal.”