Sir John Curtice: Operation Branchform could hit SNP's election spending and stop 'effective ground war'

The police investigation into SNP finances could hurt the party’s election chances, polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice has claimed.

Prof Curtice said Operation Branchform has dented the public’s trust in the SNP. He warned a lack of money could prevent the party from carrying out an “effective ground war” at the 2026 Scottish Parliament election.

Peter Murrell, the party’s former chief executive and husband of former first minister Nicola Sturgeon, was charged with embezzlement last year.

Police officers outside the home of Nicola Sturgeon and Peter Murrell as part of Operation Branchform. | Andrew Milligan/Press Association

Both Ms Sturgeon and the party’s former treasurer Colin Beattie were also arrested and released without charge, but remain under police investigation.

At the beginning of the year, Ms Sturgeon announced she and Mr Murrell had separated. Ten senior officers are working on the case and the total costs of Operation Branchform have now exceeded £2.3 million.

This includes £2,106,961 on policing and £206,366 on the Crown Office’s prosecution.

Scottish politics has never been more important - get The Steamie newsletter today

Prof Curtice told Sky News: “Operation Branchform is a problem for the SNP, insofar as it does make it more difficult for them to raise money, because there are question marks about whether or not the party could be trusted with donations that are coming in [that are] being spent for the appropriate purpose.

“And the party, at the end of the day, will want to be able to fight the Holyrood election with as much financial heft and resources as it can possibly muster.”

Professor Sir John Curtice | John Devlin/National World

The latest polling suggests a pro-independence majority will be returned in 2026 and the SNP will remain the largest party in Holyrood - but with much fewer MSPs being elected.

Prof Curtice said: “A lack of financial resources may well make it somewhat more difficult for the party to run an effective ground war. It may not be able to spend so much money on advertising or on social media.

“Maybe that could cost it one or two seats, and because the prospect of there being a pro-independence majority at the moment looks as though it is literally on a knife edge, that could matter.”

A SNP spokeswoman said: “As we approach the election, recent polling shows strong levels of support for the SNP under John Swinney’s leadership, as we deliver the progress people in Scotland deserve on the issues that matter to them.”