Sir John Curtice on how John Swinney has helped repair SNP's 'battered reputation'

Labour look set to make significant gains north of the border. And the SNP are at risk of falling short of their target of winning at least half of Scotland’s seats at Westminster.

However, the battle between them now looks as though it could be significantly closer than Labour had hoped and the SNP feared when Mr Sunak called the election six weeks ago.

At that point Savanta reckoned that Labour were on 37 per cent, four points ahead of the SNP. Their lead was even slightly bigger, five points, in the middle of June. Yet in today’s poll support for Labour is, at 31 per cent, six points down on the beginning of the campaign, and seven points short of the middle of June.

Meanwhile, the SNP have held steady on 34 per cent, enough now to put the party ahead for the first time since Humza Yousaf’s fateful decision to sack two Green ministers from the government.

The poll suggests two explanations for this turn-around. First it looks as though the SNP have had some success in persuading some of those who would vote Yes to independence to return to the SNP fold. 

A fortnight ago, 56 per cent of Yes supporters said they would vote for the SNP, while 28 per cent were supporting Labour. Now, support for the SNP among this group has increased to 61 per cent while backing for Labour has slipped to 21 per cent. At the same time, Labour have lost some ground among No supporters too.

Second, the SNP have made some progress in the battle with Labour for credibility on policy.  A fortnight ago, 32 per cent chose Labour as the best party to improve health care in Scotland, while only 27 per cent nominated the SNP. Now the two parties are tied at 31 per cent apiece.

Similarly, Labour (30 per cent) were previously ahead of the SNP (26 per cent) on improving education , whereas now the positioned is reversed (with Labour on 28 per cent and the SNP on 30 per cent).

These figures suggest that some of the SNP’s attacks on Labour’s plans for public expenditure may have finally had some impact.

Meanwhile, Mr Swinney also appears to have had some success in improving the SNP’s somewhat battered reputation as an effective political party. Now 40 per cent feel the party is united, up from 34 per cent a fortnight ago. And 41 per cent now reckon the SNP provides strong leadership, up from 36 per cent.

That said, the SNP is still in negative territory on these criteria, whereas the opposite is true for Labour. Whatever the result tomorrow, there will still be plenty of political repair work left for Mr Swinney to do.