Exclusive:Poll puts SNP ahead of Labour on eve of election as battle becomes 'significantly closer'

Labour has slipped behind the SNP in Scotland again, a new poll for The Scotsman has found, in a sign the battle between the two parties may be significantly closer than the former had hoped.

The poll by Savanta for The Scotsman found the SNP now on 34 per cent of the vote, while Labour is on 31 per cent – a fall of seven points from the middle of June.

Sir John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, said this would see the SNP return 24 MPs compared to Labour’s 22.

Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, said: “Our final Scottish voting intention before July 4 suggests the SNP is ahead of Labour, showing a modest improvement and potentially blunting their losses on election night. If our results were reflected on polling day, John Swinney's election as SNP leader looks like it will have come just in the nick of time.

"That being said, Labour's efficient vote, in particular around the Central Belt, will still mean it's likely going to be a very good evening for Anas Sarwar and Keir Starmer. Their majority is no longer dependent on Scotland, but they'll want to squeeze the SNP as much as they can."

Prof Curtice said the battle between Labour and the SNP “now looks as though it could be significantly closer than Labour had hoped and the SNP feared when Rishi Sunak called the election six weeks ago”.

He said: “At that point Savanta reckoned that Labour were on 37 per cent, four points ahead of the SNP. Their lead was even slightly bigger, five points, in the middle of June. Yet in today’s poll support for Labour is, at 31 per cent, six points down on the beginning of the campaign, and seven points short of the middle of June.

"Meanwhile, the SNP have held steady on 34 per cent, enough now to put the party ahead for the first time since [former first minister] Humza Yousaf’s fateful decision to sack two Green ministers from the government.”

Prof Curtice said the poll suggests the SNP “have had some success in persuading some of those who would vote Yes to independence to return to the SNP fold”. Meanwhile, the party has also “made some progress in the battle with Labour for credibility on policy”.

The polling expert added: “A fortnight ago, 32 per cent chose Labour as the best party to improve health care in Scotland, while only 27 per cent nominated the SNP. Now the two parties are tied at 31 per cent apiece.

“Similarly, Labour (30 per cent) were previously ahead of the SNP (26 per cent) on improving education, whereas now the position is reversed (with Labour on 28 per cent and the SNP on 30 per cent). These figures suggest that some of the SNP’s attacks on Labour’s plans for public expenditure may have finally had some impact.”

Savanta interviewed 1,083 Scottish adults aged 16 and over online between June 28 and July 2. Data was weighted to be demographically representative of Scottish adults by age, gender, region and past voting behaviour.

The SNP is on 34 per cent, which is unchanged from the last Savanta poll carried out between June 21-25. Labour is on 31 per cent, which is a drop of three points. Meanwhile, the Scottish Conservatives are on 15 per cent (+1), the Liberal Democrats on 9 per cent (+2), Reform UK on 6 per cent (unchanged), and the Greens on 3 per cent (+1). ‘Other’ is on 2 per cent.

Prof Curtice said this would see the SNP return 24 MPs, Labour 22, the Conservatives six and the Liberal Democrats five.

Voting intentions at Holyrood show the SNP on 37 per cent (unchanged) for the constituency vote, ahead of Labour on 32 per cent (-3). The Conservatives are on 16 per cent (+2), while the Liberal Democrats are on 9 per cent (+1) and ‘other’ is on 6 per cent (+1).

On the more proportional regional list vote, the SNP is on 29 per cent (-2), Labour on 28 per cent (-1), the Tories on 16 per cent (-1), the Liberal Democrats on 11 per cent (+2), and the Greens also on 11 per cent (+2). ‘Other’ is on 5 per cent (+1).

Under analysis by Prof Curtice, this would give the SNP 46 MSPs, Labour 37, the Tories 21, the Liberal Democrats 13 and the Greens 12.

Support for independence remains split, with 52 per cent in favour of remaining in the UK and 48 per cent backing separation, once undecideds are excluded.

It came as Mr Swinney, the First Minister and SNP leader, said some seats would be decided “by only a handful of votes”. He will use a speech this evening to deliver a final message to voters in Scotland ahead of ballots being cast.

The election in England, he will reiterate, is a “foregone conclusion”, while results in Scotland are “on a knife edge”. The campaign between the SNP and Scottish Labour is one of “genuine, competing visions of the future”, he will say.

“There are seats that could be decided by only a handful of votes,” he is expected to say. "Be certain about one thing – your vote will matter. It could make all the difference.

“The election in Scotland is the only place where there are genuine, competing visions of the future at stake – a real contest of ideas and values. Labour are offering Scotland more of the same and picking up where the Tories left off. More cuts, opening the door to privatisation of the NHS, Brexit and capping child benefits, but not bankers’ bonuses.

“The SNP is offering Scotland a different vision. A vision of hope for a better future. Ending austerity, supporting our NHS, re-joining the EU, tackling the cost-of-living crisis and a future made in Scotland, for Scotland, with independence.”

Mr Swinney has pushed for a review of the timetable for general elections amid issues with Scottish voters receiving postal ballots.

Meanwhile, the Tories warned even a small number of votes for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK will see the SNP handed seats in Scotland. Party chairman Craig Hoy said: “Many seats in Scotland are a straight contest between the SNP and Scottish Conservatives.

“In those key seats, no other party can win. Reform, Labour and the Lib Dems are simply too far behind. Even a small number of votes for Reform could lead to big wins for the SNP.”

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar said Scots could use their vote to “end the Tory nightmare”. He said: “This election is an opportunity for change that Scotland cannot afford to miss.

“Imagine waking up on Friday to the news of five more years under the Tories – the same sleazy Tories that put party before country, crashed the economy and left ordinary families to pick up the bill.

“But with a simple cross in a box on Thursday, Scots can end the Tory nightmare and deliver a transformative Labour government with Scotland at its heart.”