Sir John Curtice: 'Inevitable' the SNP will be at the core of next Scottish Government

It is “inevitable” the SNP will be at the core of the next Holyrood government, according to polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice.

Prof Curtice also said the independence debate could be firmly back on the table at the next UK general election thanks to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar has made no secret of his desire to become the next first minister.

However, despite his party performing well in the Holyrood polls last summer, Scottish Labour has slipped back down to where it was in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election, mainly due to unpopular policy decisions made in Westminster.

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The SNP has meanwhile recovered under the leadership of John Swinney and looks likely to remain the largest party in Holyrood - albeit on reduced numbers.

Reform UK is predicted to win up to 15 seats in next year’s Scottish elections, which could mean the unionist vote is split over a number of different parties, making it even more difficult for Mr Sarwar to do a deal to become first minister.

Prof Curtice was speaking at an event hosted by Holyrood Magazine on Tuesday night looking ahead to next year’s Scottish Parliament election.

Professor Sir John Curtice | John Devlin/National World

He said: “It is difficult to see how anyone else is going to do enough to form an administration. Even if Labour improved to a degree, the problem on the unionist side is it is very difficult to see how you’re going to form a wholly unionist government without more than just the implicit backing of Reform.

“Labour has already said it is not willing to deal with Reform, and the Conservatives won’t dare say that. If we are then talking about Labour doing a deal with the Conservatives, since 2014 north of the Border that seems inconceivable.

“Unless there is fundamental change to get Labour back to where it was in July, it seems almost inevitable that the SNP is going to be the core of the next government.”

First Minister John Swinney campaigning with Education Secretary Jenny Gilruth and David Torrance MSP. | Lesley Martin/Press Association

Prof Curtice did warn the SNP might have to consider doing another deal with the Scottish Greens to get a working majority, which “will create difficulties”. However, he said the outcome of the next UK general election might reignite the debate on Scottish independence as Reform UK could again split the right-wing vote.

The next general election needs to take place before August 2029.

Prof Curtice said: “In 2028 or 2029, if we get a hung parliament, the SNP potentially has leverage and then the whole constitutional debate takes off again.

“For the constitution debate to be re-alived, two things need to happen - one, a [pro-independence] majority in Holyrood, which could be decided in 2026, and then the prospect of [the SNP] having leverage in Westminster during the lifetime of the next parliament. If all of those things come together, it is not that hard.

“But we need to realise the potential consequence of the rise of Reform UK might help to deliver a pro-nationalist majority in Holyrood, even though well under 50 per cent will vote for the SNP and the Greens.”

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage | Benjamin Cremel/Getty Images

At the event Prof Curtice branded First Minister John Swinney “an effective tactician”, but said Mr Farage was able to cut through to disillusioned voters. “Unlike his political opponents, Farage does charisma, he speaks human,” Prof Curtice said.