Polls may look good for SNP but John Swinney can't take all the credit

The rise of Reform UK in Scotland is splintering the pro-Union vote and helping the SNP

“The SNP’s on the front foot... I think we’re back in business,” said John Swinney. Well, yes and no. They certainly are the current favourites to win next year’s Holyrood election but the reason why is less about their own performance than the disarray of their political opponents.

A recent poll by Survation put the SNP on 34 per cent, up four points on their 30 per cent showing at last year’s general election. The big movers over the past eight months have been Labour, down 12 points on the election at 23 per cent, and Reform UK up ten to 17 per cent.

Labour’s fall reflects the Westminster government’s obvious struggles, while Reform is taking votes from the Conservatives or votes that would have otherwise gone to them, as Kemi Badenoch and Russell Findlay struggle to find a winning formula to counter Nigel Farage’s popularity. So it’s not that the SNP are on the front foot, more that their opponents are on their back ones.

John Swinney has helped steady the SNP ship (Picture: Jeff J Mitchell) | Getty Images

Tactical voting could be a factor

The First Minister can take a small amount of credit. He has undoubtedly helped steady a decidedly rocky ship and steer it towards safer waters.

However, the qualities of a good political leader need to be greater than simply being able to stay out of trouble. They need to make a positive difference to people’s lives. The SNP aren’t winning over many Scottish voters, they are instead benefitting from Reform taking votes from the established opposition parties.

Polls tend to underplay the effect of tactical voting at the constituency level and this could mean the picture is not quite as rosy for the nationalists as it may appear. However, it’s clear that both Labour and the Conservatives need to get their act together if they are to have any chance of ousting the SNP next year.

Labour’s fortunes will largely depend on those of the Westminster government, whose mid-term blues started early and look set to continue. The Conservatives, meanwhile, should start to question whether their pitch as a Reform-lite party is offending as many people as it attracts, while also serving to boost Farage’s credibility.