Rutherglen by-election: Stakes are higher for Sir Keir Starmer than for Humza Yousaf

Political parties ramp up campaigning as Margaret Ferrier is ousted as an MP

The stakes are higher for Sir Keir Starmer than they are for Humza Yousaf in the upcoming Rutherglen by-election, according to polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice.

Former SNP MP Margaret Ferrier has been ousted from the House of Commons after 11,896 people in her constituency backed a recall petition to get rid of her.

The petition was triggered after she was suspended from Westminster for breaking coronavirus lockdown rules, which also saw her thrown out of the SNP.

Labour leader, Sir Keir Starmer MP. Photo: Getty Images

This now means a by-election will be held in Rutherglen and Hamilton West, and political parties are wasting no time in ramping up their campaigning.

Many see this as a straight fight between Labour and the SNP - and Professor Curtice says Sir Keir Starmer has to win this by-election if he is to demonstrate a Labour revival in Scotland.

Speaking on BBC Good Morning Scotland, he said: “All indications are Labour are enjoying a swing from the SNP of at least 10 per cent compared to the 2019 results - some polls suggest it could be even higher at 12 per cent.

“Rutherglen and Hamilton West is a marginal SNP seat so the swing required is only in the order of five per cent - that’s the reason Labour are the favourites.

First Minister Humza Yousaf out campaigning in Rutherglen. Image: Press Association.

“Labour ought to win the seat because they are hoping to make significant gains north of the border at the next general election and it is important to Keir Starmer’s ability to win an overall majority at Westminster.

“That task will be much easier if they can pick up 10 to 20 seats in Scotland and if that happens Rutherglen will be on the list of seats Labour should be picking up.”

When asked if the stakes were higher for Sir Keir or for First Minister Humza Yousaf, Prof Curtice said: “Keir Starmer - he will want to demonstrate a Labour revival in Scotland and that it’s not just the fiction of opinion polls, it’s a reality.”

Scottish Labour will be out campaigning in the constituency today, and they say voters in the area need a fresh start.

Margaret Ferrier with former first minister Nicola Sturgeon. Image: Jane Barlow/Press Association.

Jackie Baillie MSP, the party’s deputy leader, said: “We are going to be working really hard and we intend to put forward a positive offer for the people of Rutherglen.

“They feel really disappointed and let down by the SNP and the Conservatives - that’s what we’re hearing on the doorsteps.

“The stakes are high for any leader going into a by-election.

“We need to give people a fresh start because the reality is for almost three years the people of Rutherglen haven’t been properly represented because they’ve had a lawbreaking MP.”

The SNP on the other hand say their campaign will focus on Scottish independence.

David Linden, MP for Glasgow East, says the fact Margaret Ferrier was in the SNP when she broke lockdown rules will not hold the party back in this by-election.

He said: “I am asking voters in Rutherglen to reflect on the fact the day this came to light the SNP removed her and called for a by-election because we thought Margaret’s position was untenable.

“Regrettably she has dragged it out for two years, but we are now heading for a by-election where the SNP is the only party offering change with an independence referendum.

“The SNP has won every election in Scotland since 2007 and we do that because we don’t take votes for granted.

“Labour and Keir Starmer are already behaving as if the election is already in the bag for them, and that’s not the case.”

Finally the Conservatives say they shouldn’t be written off as irrelevant in this by-election, despite huge blows to the party in the three English by-elections last month.

Craig Hoy MSP, Scottish Conservative chairman, said: “We will make the case for the Scottish Conservatives and pointing out the SNP has failed this constituency, just as they have failed people across Scotland.

“The recent by-election results were disappointing, but bear in mind Scotland is very different.

“We have a strong candidate and we are confident he will put up a good fight for the party in this constituency.”