Rishi Sunak wins Rwanda vote but Tory rebels warn they could still block the bill in January

The Prime Minister avoided an embarrassing defeat but the battle is far from over.

Rishi Sunak has survived a crucial vote on his Rwanda bill, but is now braced for a fresh battle with his MPs in the new year.

Part of his emergency “stop the boats” legislation, the vote was a test of the Prime Minister’s authority, and one that saw Government whips scrambling for support.

After a day where the Mr Sunak held numerous meetings with rebels, the UK Government won a vote on its flagship Rwanda bill by 313 to 269 – a majority of 44.

MP's gather in the House of Commons, London, ahead of the second reading vote of the Safety of Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) Bill. Photo: House of Commons/UK Parliament/PA Wire

The bill had looked to be in jeopardy and there appeared to be nerves in Downing Street, with climate change minister Graham Stuart flown back from last-ditch talks at the Cop28 summit in Dubai to vote for the legislation. But the outcome proved more comfortable than initially feared for Mr Sunak.

However, given no government has lost a second reading since 1986, the crisis is far from over, with MPs on the Tory right warning they will sink the bill in January unless significant changes are made.

Tories from the European Research Group (ERG) and four other factions had earlier met in a Parliamentary committee room to decide on whether to support the Prime Minister’s Safety of Rwanda Bill.

After the meeting, Mark Francois, speaking on behalf of what has been dubbed the “five families”, said each separate group had decided they could not support the draft legislation.

Rishi Sunak hosts a press conference inside the Downing Street Briefing Room on December 7, 202 (Photo by JAMES MANNING/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

Asked by reporters what that meant for Tuesday’s crunch vote, ERG leader Mr Francois said: “We have decided collectively that we cannot support the Bill tonight because of its many omissions.

“Therefore, while it's down to everyone individual colleague ultimately to decide what to do, collectively we will not be supporting it.

“The Prime Minister has been telling colleagues today he is prepared to entertain tightening the Bill.

“With that aim, at the committee stage, we will aim to table an amendment which would we hope, if accepted, would materially improve the Bill and remove some of its weaknesses.”Any amendments, from the left or right of the party, would likely see the other side move to scupper the bill.

The New Conservatives, made up mainly of MPs elected since the 2016 Brexit referendum, are one of the main Tory factions with reservations about the plan.

The group’s co-founder, Danny Kruger, told the Commons: “I regret we’ve got an unsatisfactory Bill, I can’t undertake to support it tonight, I hope the Government would agree to pull the Bill and allow us to work with them and colleagues across the House to produce a better Bill.”

One New Conservative member Nick Fletcher told the Commons he would back the Bill but warned: “We’ve got friends on this side of the House who want this Bill stronger and I’m going to work with them, and I’m hopefully going to work with you because we must make this work, we have to stop the boats.”

Mr Sunak had held breakfasts and meetings with different factions throughout the day, with Downing Street deeply anxious over the vote. In the end however, the rebels buckled, instead choosing to fight another day.

Debating the bill in the Commons, the Home Secretary James Cleverly suggested the legislation was already close to the limits of what would be possible, amid calls from the right to to block interference from foreign courts.

He said : “The actions that we are taking, whilst novel, whilst very much pushing at the edge of the envelope, are within the framework of international law.

“The Prime Minister has been crystal clear that he, and the Government that he leads, will not let foreign courts destroy this Rwanda plan and curtail our efforts to break the business model of those evil people-smuggling gangs.”

It was actually the UK Supreme Court which scuppered the plan to send some asylum seekers who cross the English Channel to Rwanda rather than allowing them to attempt to stay in the UK. The court ruled against the scheme, but the new legislation and a treaty with Rwanda are intended to make it legally watertight.

Speaking to MPs on Tuesday, figures from the centre and left of the party criticised the rebels, comparing their conduct to the last days of Theresa May.

One minister told The Scotsman: “These people have got lost in their own self-importance, and failed to realise just how far this bill goes. Any changes, it might not happen.

“It’s Theresa May all over again, and they’re too blinded by their own priorities to realise it’s their own seats they are helping to lose”.

The Scotsman understands multiple ministers raised concerns about the Rwanda legislation. One said: “I’d like to see us rethink, but I suspect we’ve come too far with it now”.

Some Tories were more pessimistic, with even those who backed it believing it won’t survive at a third reading.

One said: "All we've done is make a bigger problem for ourselves in January.”

The bill will now go off for more detailed scrutiny in the committee stage, with further votes on it in the New Year.

After the vote, Mr Sunak tweeted: "The British people should decide who gets to come to this country – not criminal gangs or foreign courts.

"That’s what this bill delivers.

"We will now work to make it law so that we can get flights going to Rwanda and stop the boats."

The SNP’s Home Affairs spokesperson, Alison Thewliss MP criticised the bill. She said: “This cruel Westminster Bill, which ignores the Supreme Court ruling and breaches international law, was not passed in Scotland’s name.

“It in no way reflects Scotland’s values of compassion, humanity and upholding international law. Nor does it take into account that migration benefits Scotland’s economy and our public services".

Meanwhile, Labour claimed Mr Sunak was “too weak” to defend his Rwanda plan.

Shadow home secretary Yvette Cooper said: ““The Conservatives' civil war is continuing, and the country is paying the price for this chaos. Today’s debate shows how weak Rishi Sunak is with this Tory psychodrama now dragging on into the New Year.“The costs of the failing Rwanda scheme are apparently rising to £400 million of taxpayers’ money, while no one has yet been sent and this scheme is only likely to cover less than 1 per cent of those arriving in the UK.“They’ve broken the Tory Party, broken the asylum system and broken every promise they have made to the British people. Britain deserves better than this.