Labour and Tories to win 33 Scottish seats in blow to SNP, poll says

The polling also predicted the Conservatives to fare worse than Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour in 2019.

Labour and the Tories would win 33 seats across Scotland at the next general election, polling has suggested.

Analysts at Stonehaven political consultancy forecast how every constituency would vote, and predicted a Labour landslide with 402 MPs, with the Tories on just 151.

This would be an even worse result than the crushing defeat Mr Corbyn suffered when Labour returned only 202 MPs.

The poll predicted Michael Shanks would be the first of many new Scottish Labour MPs.

The poll analysis also makes grim reading for the SNP, who are predicted to return just 20 MPs, representing their worst result since 2010.

Stonehaven said: “Eight years ago this recovery [for Scottish Labour] was unimaginable – the SNP had swept nearly all of Scotland’s Westminster seats and Labour returned one Scottish MP.

“Yet, both the model and the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election swing to Labour confirm the worsening fate of the SNP.”

Of the 57 constituencies in Scotland under the newly drawn boundaries, Scottish Labour were predicted to win 22 seats, while Douglas Ross’s Tories were also expected to return 11 MPs in Scotland.

The remaining four Scottish seats were predicted to be taken by the Liberal Democrats.

Across the UK, the wider prediction was that Labour would win 40 per cent of the vote, while Rishi Sunak’s party would win just 26 per cent.

Stonehaven said: “A six-percentage point increase in national share of the vote to the Conservatives – a small but significant shift – would be sufficient to deny Labour a majority, returning a hung parliament, in an ‘electoral shock’ reminiscent of the 2017 General Election when Theresa May as the Conservative contender had seemed unassailable.

“This critical six per cent of voters are reluctant Tory defectors – people who voted Conservative in 2019 but are now largely abstaining or voting for other parties.

"Rishi Sunak will have to win over this group in order to improve the Conservatives chances come the next election, and can do so without needing to make large gains into Labour’s vote share.”

Stonehaven's model is based on data from roughly 100,000 respondents, amassed over the last 18 months.