Kate Forbes: John Swinney has essentially named Kate Forbes his successor in first act in Bute House

John Swinney has named his rejigged Cabinet as First Minister and has sent a message that friends and potential foes will play a key role in his government.

Kate Forbes’s reintroduction to front-line politics as Deputy First Minister is a big statement to voices in his party that would have backed her leadership and her perspective on some of the divisive issues that have dominated Scottish politics. He has essentially already named his successor as his first act in Bute House.

It is also a message to the rest of Parliament that he is serious about a more collaborative politics at Holyrood. The first step was always going to be making that clear within his own government.

New Deputy First Minister Kate Forbes (Picture:Jane Barlow/PA Wire)

A significant chunk of the public will not be comfortable with Ms Forbes’s socially conservative views, particularly on sex and equality – her opposition to gay marriage and having children outside of wedlock does not sit well in a progressive government.

But her time as finance secretary under Nicola Sturgeon, thrown in at the deep end after her predecessor Derek Mackay was forced to quit on budget day, allowed Ms Forbes to excel. Mr Forbes’s previous time in government formed a huge part of why she was seen as a potential SNP leader for the future. Her new job makes that expectation somewhat inevitable.

But what will Ms Forbes as Deputy First Minister in 2024 mean for Scotland? Crucially, it will keep her away from key policy briefs taken up by other Cabinet ministers – although she will be responsible for the economy and for Gaelic. It is more of a message that she is important than giving Ms Forbes particular responsibility. But that doesn’t mean that she will not play a key role in Mr Swinney’s Government – it is quite obvious that she will.

Kate Forbes arrives at Bute House to be named Deputy First Minister (Photo: Andy Buchanan/AFP via Getty Images)

Expect Ms Forbes to be the loudest and most independent Deputy First Minister Scotland has seen for years – even, perhaps, before Mr Swinney held that role himself.

Handing Ms Forbes the brief for economy will allow her to set a strategic vision for her Government’s economic blueprint, but without setting budgets – that role will be retained by Shona Robison. But it is likely Ms Forbes will play a key bridging role with businesses – she made good work of that task during extremely difficult circumstances during the pandemic and has stuck up for traders raising fears about controversial SNP policies such as the deposit return scheme.

Accepting the job, the Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch MSP said it was a “moment of extraordinary privilege”. She made a point of recognising “the duty that all ministers have to reflect the Government’s priorities and the missions that drive them”, very much painting herself as a team player. But will she fall in line with the Scottish Government after having a stint as an outspoken critic on some issues such as road expansion projects and policies unpopular with businesses?

While Mr Swinney announcing Ms Forbes as his deputy might keep the right-wing of his party happy, it certainly won’t impress the Greens. Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater’s party have previously worked well with Ms Forbes when she was finance secretary, but have raised concerns about her suitability as a leader of the Scottish Government. If the Greens double down on their opposition to Ms Forbes, as they are likely to do, the Scottish Government will need to look to unionist parties to support their legislative plans.

John Swinney speaks to the media after he is sworn in as First Minister of Scotland (Photo by Andrew Milligan/PA Wire)

Rumours had circulated that Ms Robison was set for an unexpected exit from government after she was absent from Mr Swinney’s campaign launch. Ms Robison has held many key ministerial jobs, including an unconvincing stint as health secretary, and was pivotal at passing the now-scrapped gender recognition reforms.

Under Humza Yousaf she was his deputy and finance secretary – and it seemed unthinkable that Mr Swinney would not offer her a position in his top team. She has stepped aside as Deputy First Minister to make was for Ms Forbes, but will remain in his Cabinet as finance secretary and responsible for a crucial, but frayed relationship with local government.

Mairi McAllan continuing as net zero secretary will surprise nobody. The 31-year-old introduced Mr Swinney when he launched his leadership campaign last week and was by his side in the chamber when he accepted the nomination to become First Minister on Thursday. She is a critical ally and a key asset for Mr Swinney’s Government.

Mr Swinney has stressed that tackling the climate crisis is a key priority for his Government. But Ms McAllan’s first big headache is sorting out Scotland’s stuttering strategy in reducing emissions. She will need the support of opposition parties to amend legislation to scrap a legal 2030 target that is no longer achievable and we are still waiting for the Government’s updated climate change plan to emerge, which will form the blueprint for getting progress back on track. It will need to be bold.

But more key problems lie ahead for other Cabinet ministers. Jenny Gilruth’s stumbling blocks as education secretary have not gone away, neither has Neil Gray’s headache over the under-pressure NHS, including a key programme to build new hospitals and treatment centres that have been put on hold. Fiona Hyslop is already facing pressure from her former government colleagues, the Scottish Greens, to confirm a trial scrapping of off-peak rail fares is made permanent.

Mr Swinney and his Government have a lot of work to do. The First Minister has spoken of the need for “good will” from opponents to forge a new politics, but he will have little time to prove that his leadership is not simply a continuation of his predecessor’s struggles.