Exclusive:Swinney urged to seize 'pivotal' programme for government amid 'tortuously difficult' Holyrood backdrop
John Swinney is due to set out his priorities for the next five years on Tuesday
John Swinney has been urged to use the “pivotal moment” of this week’s programme for government to map a “credible pathway" that focuses “relentlessly on delivery" to avoid repeating SNP's past mistakes.
It comes as the Scottish government is due publish a five-year programme for government alongside the usual annual prospectus of legislation it intends to bring forward.
Mr Swinney is under pressure to deliver on his promises after securing victory in May’s Holyrood election.
But he faces a bleak fiscal picture and a fractured political backdrop at Holyrood after Mr Swinney fell short of his ambition to secure an overall majority that would have unlocked the door to securing his legislative plans.
Instead, the SNP government will need support of other parties for its legislation to pass, while this year’s budget and lack of additional funding will add to ministers’ strategies.
Ahead of Tuesday’s programme for government being published, experts have called for Mr Swinney’s plans to be solid and achievable.
Stephen Boyd, director of the IPPR Scotland think tank, told Scotland on Sunday that the programme for government is “a pivotal moment for the First Minister and his new government”.
He said: “He needs to set out a credible pathway towards delivering real progress on his four priorities - eradicating child poverty, tackling climate change, growing the economy and delivering effective public services - and deliver a host of costly manifesto commitments while working within increasingly constrained public finances.”
But Mr Boyd warned that “this is likely to prove tortuously difficult”.
He said: “Progress can be made over the coming year on reducing child poverty and introducing vital climate mitigation and adaption measures. But this can’t be done on the cheap.
“A good place for to start would be to avoid the ill-thought through and uncosted initiatives scattered across recent PfGs and focus relentlessly on delivery.
“The First Minister also has to be clear with the Scottish people about the trade-offs that will become increasingly apparent over this Parliament.
“For example, delivering on the SNP’s manifesto commitment to cap bus fares at £2 is likely to cost around £200m. This is a positive measure that will help reduce the cost of living for bus users. But the First Minister should explain precisely how this - and other new measures - will be paid for.”
Mr Boyd also pointed to the fiscal backdrop, with this year’s spending review confirming real-term cuts to portfolios including local government, education and justice over the next three years.
“It would be prudent for the First Minister to be frank about the limits of what can be achieved through efficiencies alone and start preparing the public for what is to come”, Mr Boyd said. “This will either be spending cuts – which, as the austerity years proved, will intensify spending pressures in future years – or tax rises that will have to be shared across the population.”
David Phillips, head of devolved and local government finance at the Institute for Fiscal Studies, also warned that rolling out policies to implement SNP manifesto commitments “will not come cheap”.
He added: “Current figures suggest overall Scottish government funding is set to fall in 2027–28, and rise only very modestly in subsequent years.
“Finding the money to start rolling out these new subsidies will therefore mean either bigger cutbacks to other areas of spending, or increases in devolved taxes.”
Mr Swinney said that eradicating child poverty, growing the economy and reforming public services will be central to his programme for government.
“We want every person, family and community to have the opportunity to fulfil their potential and share in Scotland's success”, he said.
““We will also focus on prevention, drive public sector reform where it is needed and ensure investment is directed towards frontline services to improve outcomes for people and communities.”
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