By-elections UK: Lib Dems and Labour confidence growing as Rishi Sunak and Tories face multiple by-election losses

The Conservatives face by-elections in Somerton and Frome, Selby and Ainsty and Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

Rishi Sunak is facing three challenging by-elections this Thursday in very different parts of the country.

The Tories are seeking to defend seats in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Somerton and Frome, and Selby and Ainsty. If they lose all three, it would be the worst result for any governing political party since 1968.

Most Tory MPs are resigned to losing two, but there are fears amongst Conservative ranks a third would spread dissent through a parliamentary party already giving up hope of winning the next election.

The Liberal Democrat's candidate for the Somerton and Frome by-election Sarah Dyke on the campaign trail in Frome, Somerset.

For Labour, Selby and Ainsty represents a chance for Sir Keir Starmer to dismiss critics of his lack of policy, with electoral success representing a vindication. Winning in former prime minister Boris Johnson’s old seat of Uxbridge & South Ruislip is a harder ask, but would represent a symbolic victory ahead of the next general election.

But what are the key issues, and what’s at stake in each seat?

Somerton and Frome

Seat: Somerton and Frome

Labour expect to win in the Selby and Ainsty by-election following the resignation of incumbent MP Nigel Adams.

Departing MP: David WarbutonMajority: 19,213Main challenger: Liberal Democrats

The biggest challenge for the Conservatives is holding Somerton and Frome, a seat in the south-west of England where the sitting Tory MP David Warburton resigned in disgrace after accusations of sexual misconduct and drug use. He denies the former, but admitted the latter.

Despite boasting a 19,213 majority, Mr Warbuton’s scandal has dragged on for more than a year, allowing the Lib Dems to campaign extensively. The Scotsman understands the Lib Dems have knocked every house in the constituency, and had hundreds of canvassers out on the past weekend alone.

So missing is Mr Warburton, the Liberal Democrat candidate Sarah Dyke has already been dealing with his casework, explaining "people haven't known where to go".

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer (centre), Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves and Danny Beales, the Labour candidate for Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

The seat was previously Liberal Democrat, being held by David Heath from 1997 until 2015 when he stood down, and Mr Warburton won it.

A victory for the Liberal Democrats would show they can be a force in the south-west again, which is also good news for Labour. Most seats in the region are between the Tories and the Liberal Democrats, increasing Sir Keir’s chances of being the next prime minister.

Most Tories have completely given up on the seat, and now simply hope it’s an outlier among their swathes of seats in the area.

A Lib Dem source admitted some “sticky greens” in Frome were holding out, but that support had swung towards them from areas they typically struggled. The source said: “The areas that are swinging the most decisively to us are Tory villages where we’ve never done that well.

“We have proven we can beat the Tories In the blue wall, winning in Somerton and Frome after Tiverton and Honiton and good results in Somerset locals last year and Devon this year really shows we are becoming a serious threat in the south-west”.

Selby and Ainsty

Seat: Selby and AinstyDeparting MP: Nigel AdamsMajority: 20,137Main challenger: Labour

Not too far from from Mr Sunak’s North Yorkshire constituency, the Conservatives are expecting another defeat, in the constituency of Selby and Ainsty.

Six months ago, it wasn’t even on Labour’s target list, with the seat only ever having a Tory MP. But now Sir Keir’s party is increasingly confident they are overturning the massive 20,000 majority.

It follows Nigel Adams quitting the seat, not from scandal, but over missing out on a peerage in Mr Johnson’s resignation honours. This is believed to have enraged locals, who were already cross with the Tories.

Labour sources explain voters who’ve only ever supported the Tories are now offering to put up posters for them, in a complete change from everything that’s come before. This fits with the polling, with a survey of more than 500 people in the constituency by JL Partners finding Labour had a ten point lead.

A party source said: “People were already feeling left behind in the area, and the idea someone is standing down for not getting a peerage has only made that worse. These are small towns and rural communities, and they feel abandoned by the party they’ve supported.”

Bradford South MP Judith Cummins, who is running the campaign for Labour, has claimed “the number one issue is the economy and the cost of living”. Simon Lightwood, the MP for nearby Wakefield, says the electorate just feels “really let down”.

Mr Sunak has made a campaigning visit to the constituency, as have four Cabinet ministers, but there is a growing sense the battle is lost, raising questions as to whether there are any safe Tory seats.

While one Tory MP told The Scotsman “it was still in play”, others were less confident, saying “barring a miracle, it’s gone”.

Uxbridge & South Ruislip

Seat: Uxbridge and South RuislipDeparting MP: Boris JohnsonMajority: 7,210Main challenger: Labour

The former prime minister’s seat is the Tories best hope on Thursday, despite the series of scandals revolving around Mr Johnson.

When he quit last month, there was a belief the seat was lost, with Labour confident they could have ousted Mr Johnson if he’d stayed anyway.

However, the Tories have tried to frame the vote as a “referendum” on London mayor Sadiq Khan’s expansion of the Ultra Low Emission Zone (Ulez) to Greater London. There is widespread concern in the constituency about the proposed expansion, forcing the Labour candidate Danny Beales to come out against the policy.

It will see residents with the most polluting vehicles face a £12.50-a-day charge from August. While this has cut through in the general media, and Tories say the issue is coming up on the doorstep, the main issue remains the cost of living.

So toxic is Mr Johnson in the seat, he has not campaigned at all for the Tory hopeful, Conservative councillor Steve Tuckwell, who in turn has no mention of Mr Johnson on his leaflets.

Mr Tuckwell is under no illusions about his chances, admitting pollsters predict a Labour win, adding “it’s going to be very difficult”.

A Tory source added: “It’s very much in-play, but even if we lose it, this is no slight on Rishi Sunak. He’s still cleaning up the mess from the guy before.”

Ironically Mr Khan, who is almost guaranteed to win another term as London mayor, is the Tories greatest hope. Anything less than losing three seats will be considered by the Tories to be a good night, with Uxbridge and South Ruislip their best shot.

If Labour are going to win the next general election, this is exactly the sort of seat they need to be winning.