Rishi Sunak leadership: Why Tories are bracing for 'nasty moment' as UK by-elections loom

Conservative MPs were said to be in “good spirits” as they decamped en-masse to the Downing Street garden for a hog roast hosted by Rishi Sunak on Wednesday evening, according to one of their number.

But while they may have enjoyed their gossip over pulled pork, barbecued lamb chops and halloumi and vegetable skewers, it was but a brief respite from the “gloomy” mood descending on the Tory benches.

Even an “impromptu stint with the jazz quartet” from the MP for Guildford, Angela Richardson, could distract colleagues only for so long. The party faces three by-elections in Tory-held seats next week, which even Cabinet ministers privately concede are all but lost.

A hat-trick of defeats is only likely to increase fears of a Labour win in next year’s general election. Asked if they were expecting the Tories to pull off a shock win next week, one Cabinet minister said: “Are you joking? I’m not feeling very inspired, let’s just say that.”

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. Picture: Hannah McKay - WPA Pool/Getty Images

The hog roast showed Mr Sunak is aware of the need to lift the melancholy atmosphere on the Tory benches. It has spread even to Whitehall, with No 10 aides visiting UK Government departments to try to improve morale among officials and political advisers after realising they routinely get summoned to Downing Street, but are never invited to host talks in their own offices.

No 10 is understood to be worried about a fall-off in the number of backbenchers attending Prime Minister’s Questions every week, with Mr Sunak’s inner circle asking the whips’ office to gee up enthusiasm. A source close to the Prime Minister added: “The by-elections are going to be a really nasty moment. There won’t be a leadership challenge or anything like that, but we’ll need to improve morale.”

There is, however, a sense of frustration among Mr Sunak’s supporters, as MPs demand “pork barrel projects” and policies they can rally around.

“The mood is spiky right now,” the source said. “A lot of people [MPs] are worrying about how they pay their mortgage in two years. MPs come to us asking for a bypass or something that’s going to cost £120 million and won’t save their seat anyway – uniform national swing is called uniform for a reason.”

An MP supportive of Mr Sunak added: “He became prime minister because people wanted a period of calm after a lot of change – and now they turn around saying that they want more excitement.”

There is still, however, hope Mr Sunak can turn things around before the next election. The Cabinet minister said: “Everyone seems to have priced in defeats next Thursday. But they are also buying into the idea that we’re in this for the long haul. And that we’ve just got to keep getting the basics right. I think we are getting the basics right. We’re not the Government lurching from crisis to crisis.”

Tory MPs who still believe are clinging on to the hope Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer is not that popular.

Mr Sunak will meanwhile hope the timing of the by-elections, on the last day of the parliamentary term, means they will be quickly forgotten by MPs heading off on their summer breaks.