Anas Sarwar turns tables on John Swinney as SNP now under pressure to deliver Budget

We were never really heading for an early Holyrood election - much to the relief of John Swinney and Anas Sarwar - and pretty much everyone else at Holyrood.

It was likely the LibDems would have abstained on Finance Secretary Shona Robison’s spending plans. But Mr Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, has confirmed his party will prop up the Budget because, he claims, it was going to pass anyway.

John Swinney and Anas Sarwar (Photo by Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images)

Mr Sarwar had last month planted the seed that his MSPs could abstain, as he attempted to claim that voting for the Budget would not mean supporting the SNP’s plans to mitigate the two-child benefit cap his Westminster colleagues have refused to back down over.

That stance was pushing reality, given money is allocated to begin setting up processes for the policy in the Budget.

READ MORE: Scottish Budget set to pass following Labour announcement

But now his strategy becomes clearer. Politically, the pressure has been heaped back on the Scottish Government - with Mr Sarwar stressing he would actively vote for the Budget if SNP ministers accelerate those plans to mitigate the benefit cap and introduce the policy in April.

If the Department for Work and Pensions shares data with Holyrood, as it is understood it is happy to, then SNP ministers will begin coming under pressure to deliver that policy in the next financial year, despite not allocating funding in the Budget to do so.

For the Scottish Labour leader, he will hope his decision looks to the public like he is doing grown-up and constructive politics - something he’ll want to show more of if he is serious about becoming the next first minister. After months of being on the backfoot as Mr Swinney caught him off-guard by countering unpopular Westminster decisions, this move could offer Mr Sarwar a reprieve.

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar. Picture: Andrew Milligan/PA Wire | PA

It also opens the door for Mr Sarwar to find some distance between him and his Westminster colleagues who are doing and will likely continue to do him no favours ahead of the crunch 2026 Holyrood election.

For Mr Swinney, it is maybe time for a reflection on some of the scare tactics he has been espousing over the past few days, warning of all sorts of carnage for the NHS if opposition parties continued to be opposition parties. It surely cannot be the opposition parties’ fault Mr Swinney does not hold a Holyrood majority?

Now the Budget is set to pass, unless Labour has a change of heart, the focus will turn to whether the SNP’s spending plans will actually deliver for the public.

READ MORE: How Scotland's two governments' new-found co-operation could be poised to turn sour

NHS pressures have continued to escalate since the pandemic, but health services are poised to receive an extra £2 billion. This includes £200m to reduce waiting times and improve capacity. No-one can argue that it is not required.

Scotland’s affordable housebuilding programme will receive £768m after being neglected previously. But could developers have their heads turned by the incoming streamlined planning process set to be rolled out south of the Border?

Despite an extra £1bn for local councils, Cosla has warned “additional funding may not be enough to reverse planned cuts to vital services across our communities”. The Budget is not a straightforward win.

At the 2026 Holyrood election, the SNP will be judged on whether it has learnt how to deliver on its promises.

This Budget passing is politically positive for both the SNP and Labour. But there is no guarantee the Scottish Government will receive such a generous boost from Westminster next time as that crunch election approaches.

It is now up to the SNP to deliver their plans for the Scottish public and begin restoring some of that trust that has been lost.