Analysis: Labour are predicted to win in Scotland and SNP yet to work out how to stop them

Polling predicts Labour to win 28 seats in Scotland, with the SNP on just 18.

Labour are on course to win in Scotland, according to the polling, and the SNP haven’t yet worked out how to stop them.

Research by Nostat makes grim reading for Humza Yousaf and Stephen Flynn, with the party tipped to collapse from 48 Westminster seats to just 18.

Having spent years supporting the narrative that only independence can stop the Tories governing Scotland, the SNP now find themselves facing a sweeping Labour majority, if polls are to be believed.

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar seems to have turned the party around.

This would mean any votes against Labour Government legislation would require SNP MPs to walk into the same voting lobby as Tories. It’s not a look the party can afford, especially with a Holyrood election to come.

For Labour, this latest poll is further proof that the approach from Sir Keir Starmer is working, keeping things steady while scandal and crisis engulf both the SNP and Conservatives.

It also represents a major turnaround, with the party winning just one seat at the last general election. It is fair to say they did not expect to be in this position, so soon.

Speaking to party figures 18 months ago, the hopes were more limited, with a focus on retaining Ian Murray’s seat, and perhaps winning one more.

Mr Yousaf’s premiership, and the questions around Nicola Sturgeon has changed things. A year ago Labour sources were talking of 20 target seats, with that figure considered the absolute maximum. Now, 40 is a real prospect, with the SNP set to face more hard questions over the Whatsapp scandal.

And they don’t know how to handle it. Since replacing Ian Blackford, the SNP Westminster leader Mr Flynn has made attacking Labour a hallmark of his PMQs appearances. The Labour poll lead grows, and the strategy is now being called into question by his predecessor.

SNP MPs tell me they know they’ll lose colleagues and face battles to retain their own seats, but don’t know what to do about it. Hence the new approach, that only SNP MPs will fight for Scotland, or Labour don’t need Scottish votes.

Labour is ahead of schedule, and everyone is surprised. If the SNP can work out a way to stall this resurgence remains to be seen.