Is it really all over for the Scottish Conservatives? Why Russell Findlay must fight against populism

Scottish Tories leader Russell Findlay must resist the urge and fight back against populism, writes Alastair GJ Stewart.

For as long as I can remember, the Scottish Conservatives have allegedly been on the cusp of ruin. But is it actually true?

Ahead of the 2026 Scottish Parliament elections, the Scottish Conservatives should, in theory, provide a comprehensive economic alternative to the incumbent SNP and the populist broad strokes of Reform UK.

However, key policy announcements at this weekend's party conference look more interested in competing with Reform than solving Scotland's endemic social and economic problems.

Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay | PA

Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay rejected Scotland's 2045 net-zero target and pledged a Taxpayer Savings Act "to get the books in order" while cutting government spending and reducing the number of civil servants.

He called it a "blueprint for a common‑sense future for Scotland”. There are even proposals for a new Scottish Agency of Value and Efficiency - "run by business leaders" - and an "Accountability and Transparency Index" to scrutinise organisations receiving public money, which sounds painfully like Elon Musk's former plaything, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

Scotland has, does and always will need a centre-right electoral force. Now is the moment the Tories need a Ruth Davidson, and the question is whether Findlay has the same magnetism to draw together a tacit coalition of pro-union, pragmatic voices tired of rhetorical indulgence who can present that alternative without descending to a populist Reform-lite level.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage is charismatic, but his proposals for Scotland are next to non-existent. And if there's one thing Farage should be wary of, and parties in Holyrood should have realised by now, it's that they pay the price for whatever happens at Westminster – something Scottish Labour and the Conservatives know extremely well, and the SNP has used to its advantage for decades.

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The Scottish Conservatives need to give voters a clear, demarcated choice between a populist clown show and centre-right policy. The trench between the two parties should be so profound that any speculation of merging or operating with a confidence and supply agreement at Holyrood is dismissed as patently absurd.

Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay | PA

Admittedly, the polls for the party ahead of the 2026 Scottish Parliament elections are not good. But only a fool would discount the party that has refused to evaporate since devolution and even longer in Scotland before that.

In the 19th century, the Liberals were the dominant political force in Scottish politics. From 1912 to 1965, the Unionist Party combined the pre-1912 Conservative Party in Scotland and the Liberal Unionists. In 1955, they achieved the only popular majority ever achieved by any party in Scotland, with over 50 per cent of the vote and 36 of the 71 seats at Westminster.

After a staggered decline in the 1964 general election, several reforms amalgamated the Scottish Unionist Party with the Conservative and Unionist Party in England and Wales in 1965.

The rhetoric that it is all over for the centre-right in Scotland and the Tories is hyperbolic and extremely unlikely. The Unionist Party relegated the Liberals at the start of the 20th century, and Labour, in turn, overtook them by the late 1950s until the SNP did the same by the 2010s.

The key distinction here is that this shift was from a position of government-yielding power. The Scottish Conservatives' influence and importance are not in getting the keys to Bute House, but in ensuring that Reform does not beachhead populist nonsense at Holyrood and beyond.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage speaks during a press conference at Church House in Westminster, London. Picture: Jeff Moore/PA Wire

This seems a plausible ambition in a historical context. Between 1999 and 2016, the Scottish Tories achieved a low of 15 (2007) and a high of 18 (1999 and 2003) Members of Parliament out of 129 available seats. Until 2016, they were the third largest party at Holyrood, a record broken by the seismic mood change under Davidson's leadership. This propelled them to second place, overtaking Scottish Labour, and gave them a devolution high of 31 seats.

In 2021, then-leader Douglas Ross broke even with Davidson's win. The years since have not been as kind - the Tories have endured defections to Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats.

Reform UK is now a serious electoral challenge in Scotland, as evidenced by the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election on June 5, which Labour gained from the SNP. A more worrisome barometer was Reform taking a 26 per cent vote share, relegating the Tories from third to fourth place with 6 per cent, down from 11 per cent.

Polling suggests the Tories will keep their constituency seats, but lose around 15 list seats. Reform UK is expected to split the vote, halving Conservative seats, with the new party gaining a projected 15 seats thanks to Holyrood's proportional representation list system.

At the 2024 general election last year, Reform UK won five seats and 14 per cent of the vote, the third-highest vote share across the UK, and 7.0 per cent in Scotland (to the Tories' nearly 13 per cent).

The Scottish Tories hold five of the 57 Scottish seats in the House of Commons, 30 of the 129 seats in the Scottish Parliament, and 206 of Scotland's 1,226 local councillors. If power is neither realistic nor tangible, the next best thing is to ensure a cemented intellectual home of centre-right thinking, creating a bulwark against ascending populism and stagnating nationalism.

The Scottish Conservatives must play to the party's strengths in Scotland and not be anchored by the broader party's collapse at Westminster, or the temptation to fight populism with populism.

No one should wish for the death of conservatism. It is far from over for the Scottish Conservatives. Projections for next year's election feel more like a historical average for the party. However, the absence of new thinking produces only policy and voter fatigue. In that vacuum, populism seeps in and festers.