Can the Scottish Tories avoid electoral annihilation?

The future looks bleak for Russell Findlay’s party as it gathers in Edinburgh

Spare a thought for poor Russell Findlay. The Scottish Conservative leader will address his party’s conference in Edinburgh this weekend at a difficult time, to put it mildly.

Polls show the Tories on course to shed MSPs at next year’s Holyrood election. The party is being eaten alive by Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, which is surging across the country.

At the recent Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election, the Tories secured just 6 per cent of the vote, compared to 17.5 per cent at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election. Reform, meanwhile, attracted an astonishing 26 per cent.

Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay | PA

Then there is the steady drip, drip, drip of defections, with yet another councillor joining Mr Farage’s ranks on Thursday. It remains to be seen whether an MSP will choose to switch sides before next year, but Holyrood is full of whispers.

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“Reform is eating their breakfast, really - and lunch,” said Mark Diffley, a prominent pollster. The Tories’ support, he said, has “pretty much halved” since the previous Holyrood election.

“It’s pretty bleak and it’s hard to know what they do about it, if I’m honest,” Mr Diffley added. The unpopularity of the former UK Tory government has caused lasting damage, he said.

Party insiders accept this. “We totally understand that we’ve got to earn the right to be heard again,” a senior figure told The Scotsman.

They said the conference would be “upbeat” despite the challenges. “We totally understand where we are at as a party, but we still feel that there are a lot of opportunities to take advantage of,” they added.

People are disillusioned with politicians, not just the Tories, they said. Mr Findlay’s background could play to his advantage.

He is not a career politician - unlike, the source said, SNP leader John Swinney or Scottish Labour’s Anas Sarwar - and was previously an investigative journalist specialising in organised crime.

In 2015, he was the victim of an acid attack at his home in Glasgow while working for the Scottish Sun. William Burns, the hitman, was later jailed. It is not your typical political backstory.

The Scottish Tories hope their “common sense” message and robust criticism of the cosy “left-wing consensus” in Holyrood will start to cut through.

‘A desperate place’

Mr Findlay doesn’t mince his words on the latter point. Earlier this year, he told me the Scottish Parliament was a “desperate place”.

"I call it the concrete bunker,” he added. “It's soul-sapping. It's kind of the epicentre of twee, civic, self-righteous, self-regarding, crony-stuffed Scotland.”

It’s a populist message that wouldn’t be out of place in Reform. But Scottish Tory insiders insist they got there first.

“We’re not focused on Reform,” the senior party figure said. “The only thing we’re focused on is the public.” Nevertheless, they did suggest Mr Farage’s party cannot be trusted on the union.

The Scottish Tory vision

The Scottish Tory vision is of a smaller state and lower taxes, with less spent on benefits and non-essential services. There will be plenty in Scotland who agree with that.

But the problem remains: is anyone listening anymore?