Here is what the Scottish Tories need to do to combat Reform surge

Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay | PA

Scottish Conservative members who have not skedaddled to Reform ─ which is the vast majority, in case you’ve been led to believe otherwise ─ will be at Murrayfield this morning to hear Kemi Badenoch’s first Scottish conference speech as leader amidst predictions of the party’s impending demise in Scotland.

Under normal circumstances, such a prospect would be reported gleefully by some sections of the media, but now the potential replacement is deemed well beyond redemption, never mind the Pale, some may be reflecting they’d been more careful about their wishes.

For what is likely to be the last gathering before next year’s Holyrood elections, Scottish Tories are under no illusion the task of returning anything like the current 30 MSPs is uphill to say the least.

Last week’s Hamilton by-election showed that Reform’s consistent polling of around 20 per cent is no statistical aberration, and a return to a rump of 15 Conservative MSPs next May might be a creditable result, with Reform picking up roughly the same.

There is no sugar-coating the challenge, but there is still a long way to go, and last week’s events have shown just how shaky Nigel Farage’s jalopy of not-so-merry men can be at the slightest hint of controversy, even with the wind in their sails.

The loss of chair Zia Yousaf after the burka ban row, and his almost instant return, is only the latest in a series of fallouts and flounces, the most recent being the departure of former Southampton FC chair Rupert Lowe in a personality clash with Mr Farage, who is himself said to have a strained relationship with his predecessor Richard Tice.

Clearly, Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay can’t just hope for Reform to implode, and Hamilton proved that when voters are determined to register a protest, it takes a lot for them to change their minds.

So, what will members be hoping for from Kemi Badenoch this morning and Russell Findlay tomorrow? Well, a bit of fire, passion and self-belief for one thing, anything which demonstrates how the fight will be taken not just to Reform, but to Labour and the SNP too.

A couple of years ago it was difficult enough to shape an approach which recognised the challenges of opposing a resurgent Labour and an SNP in crisis, when Labour was key to the SNP’s defeat, but fighting two left-wing governments with a new threat on the right would test the greatest political strategists.

The way forward is amplifying the new common-sense agenda both to simultaneously attack the left and Reform’s contradictions from embracing higher welfare and nationalisation, like some 1930s Labour throwback

Reform can’t advocate lower taxation and cutting back the reach of government while arguing for state control of struggling industries like steel and re-opening defunct and unprofitable South Wales coal mines.

How, then, can the Scottish Conservative message be amplified? Ruth Davidson managed it by force of personality but had the benefit of national stages in two major referenda on which to perform. But she was also up for publicity opportunities, even if they were sometimes uncomfortable.

Russell Findlay has a good story to tell, so maybe, like Shadow UK Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick’s confrontation with tube fare dodgers, he can get out and make more headlines of his own.