Why Trump has already won and Democrats have only themselves to blame

It was immediately destined to become one of the defining images of our age. Bloodied but unbowed, Donald Trump wrestles free from the US secret service agents trying to shield him and pumps his fist in the air. The former president shouts “fight” as he faces down both the gunman who had so nearly taken his life and the political establishment he views as having always sided against him.

Framed against a clear blue sky and a star-spangled banner, the photograph by the Associated Press’s Evan Vucci is a study in defiance that has boosted Trump’s electoral prospects in a way no political strategist ever could. And yet in the immediate aftermath of Saturday’s shooting in Pennsylvania – which claimed the life of firefighter and father-of-two Corey Comperatore – there was more than a hint of victim-blaming.

The big daddy of inflammatory political rhetoric had, it seems, brought it upon himself. You could almost say it was Trump’s own fault that someone very nearly succeeded in killing him.

Wounded Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump is surrounded by US Secret Service agents after an attempt on his life at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, on Saturday (Picture: Evan Vucci/AP)

Sky News drew criticism for a piece of analysis headlined: “Nothing justifies an assassination bid – but did Trump play a part in changing the rules of engagement?” The Irish Times suggested “Trump fed the violence that has been turned on him”, adding: “One can condemn political violence and still seek its underlying causes.”

And MSNBC’s talk show Morning Joe was pulled from the airwaves on Monday, reportedly amid fears a contributor might make an “inappropriate” comment about the assassination attempt.

Comparisons with Hitler

Inevitably, President Joe Biden found himself dragged into the blame game, having said only last week that it is “time to put Trump in the bullseye”. Following the shooting, when pressed on NBC about this comment, Biden said: “It was a mistake to use the word. I didn’t say crosshairs. I meant bullseye, I meant focus on him. Focus on what he's doing.” It remains unclear why the president purports to believe there is a substantive difference in meaning between the two words.

In May, Biden compared Trump with Hitler. The comparison becomes all the more ridiculous in light of Biden’s condemnation of the attempt on Trump’s life and his wish for him to have a speedy recovery – a sentiment the president would surely not have expressed for Der Fuhrer.

An old man stumbles over his words, and the whole world holds its breath

Of course, Trump is more guilty than most of using irresponsible and incendiary language. But his opponents must not ape this behaviour or proffer it as some sort of mitigating factor to explain the actions of his would-be assassin. If your instinctive response to an attempted murder is to compare the gunman with his intended victim, then you need to give your moral compass a shake.

None of the above is to suggest that Trump is anything other than an unsavoury character with deep and obvious flaws. His refusal to accept defeat in the 2020 election and his rhetoric in the lead-up to the Capitol Hill riot of January 2021 were disgraceful. He appears xenophobic, he objectifies women and he has been convicted of falsifying his business records.

Scotland shows little love for Trump

For evidence of how difficult he is to warm to, perhaps one need look no further than here in Scotland. Trump, whose mother was from the Western Isles, is so proud of his Scottish heritage he has sought to combine his ancestry with his love of golf by opening two resorts here.

When John F Kennedy, Bill Clinton and Biden visited Ireland to get close to their roots, locals came out in their droves to voice their support. There have been no such public displays of affection for Trump on his many visits to Scotland.

But then US voters must necessarily view Trump through a different lens. They have to see him as their potential Commander in Chief, because that is the office he seeks, and it is a role that demands strong leadership. By whom would they rather be led?

Americans will go to the polls in November with Vucci’s defiant image of Trump in mind – the wounded leader rallying his troops – in sharp contrast to the impression they will have of his opponent. Biden’s public persona, without wishing to be unnecessarily unkind, is of a frail and doddery old man with rapidly declining faculties.

He is only three years older than Trump, but voters may very well ask themselves whether they wish to be led by the irrepressible survivor of an assassination attempt or by someone who looks fit only for retirement. They are also entitled to consider how an 86-year-old Biden would fare in the White House in 2029. And the Democrats have only themselves to blame for finding themselves in this bind.

Sneering at Great Unwashed

They had to find a strong candidate of their own to articulate a winning counter-narrative to the one so many Americans seem to find compelling. They failed to do so. It is a failure of what might be termed the “establishment left” in the face of what could be described as a popular or “populist” resurgent right, and one that it seems is being repeated across the West.

It is simply not enough to dismiss the likes of Trump, Italy’s Giorgia Meloni or Canada’s Pierre Poilievre by calling them names and sneering at their Great Unwashed support. The left must formulate winning arguments in areas where these leaders appear to be garnering support, such as energy, food security, the so-called “climate emergency” and what UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres describes as “global boiling”.

In doing so, the left might not only hold back the right but could also encourage the emergence of electable political opponents who are of better character than Trump. Instead – barring a belated and uncharacteristic mea culpa – the Democrats are on course to pay a heavy price for pretending until it was far too late that Biden was fit for office.