Why Labour could be the last hurrah for liberal democracy in UK

Happy new year. The end of the world is nigh.

Before you think I’ve joined the ranks of the easily ridiculed folk who used to march up and down outside major sporting events wearing a sandwich board proclaiming the end of days was fast approaching, I should stress that I mean ‘the world as we know it’. A ‘Brave New World’ is coming.

Increasingly, the period between the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the 2008 financial crisis seems like a golden time for humanity although, while there was a general sense of optimism, at the time it felt fairly normal. When the crash hit, many thought it would only be a matter of time before things returned to that ‘normal’. But it did not.

Instead, as liberal governments struggled to restore people’s livelihoods, growing disillusionment saw people all over the world embrace populism’s easy answers. The 2014 Scottish independence referendum, the 2016 Brexit referendum, the rise of Donald Trump in the US, the National Rally/National Front party in France and the far-right AfD party in Germany, along with the success of political leaders like Viktor Orban in Hungary, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Turkey, and Narendra Modi in India can all be seen as examples.

Peace and prosperity

Liberal democracy is by far the most successful form of government that humanity has ever had, with decades of supporting evidence. It was its superior economic system that won the Cold War; communism just could not compete. It has also proved itself as a successful peacekeeper. There may be a few exceptions but, generally speaking, liberal democracies tend not to go to war with each other.

They also allow about as much freedom as possible to their citizens, encouraging the exchange of ideas that is crucial to everything from solving social problems to making scientific advancements. But just a few years of hard times has been enough to persuade many people to turn to nationalistic ‘strongmen’ who care nothing about the lives of the people they rule.

When Donald Trump returns to the White House later this month, the three most powerful people in the world – the US President, Russia’s bloodthirsty tyrant Vladimir Putin and China’s communist dictator Xi Jinping – will all be intent on territorial expansion, to one degree or another.

Trump wants Greenland, Xi wants Taiwan

Trump spent Christmas Day posting on social media about the US taking control of Greenland, the Panama Canal and even Canada. “The people of Greenland, which is needed by the United States for national security purposes and, who want the US to be there, and we will!" he wrote.

Perhaps this is some kind of weird, Trumpian opening position for a future negotiation, or his idea of a joke, the soon-to-be ‘Leader of the Free World’ pranking us all like a delinquent teenager. However, during his first term, when Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen dismissed Trump’s suggestion that the US should have Greenland as “absurd”, he said she was “nasty” and cancelled a state visit. Sounds like this overgrown toddler’s serious.

Xi’s regime has been making increasingly alarming threats to invade Taiwan and his government also has longstanding territorial feuds with many of its neighbours. The infamous ‘nine-dash line’ defines China’s territorial claim on a vast area of the South China Sea, leaving little for countries like Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia. And China is clearly serious, as it has been building artificial islands to host ports and military bases to enforce this claim.

Putin’s attempt to conquer Ukraine is clearly not the limit of his ambitions. Many think his overall aim is to rebuild the Soviet empire and Poland’s outsized defence budget suggests they believe it.

Farage’s admiration for Putin

For mini-me populists like the UK’s very own Nigel Farage, Trump’s attempt to subvert American democracy after he lost the 2020 election and his inaction as his supporters stormed the US Capitol building do not present a problem. Farage has also made disturbing remarks about Putin. Defending his comments, Farage told BBC Panorama earlier this year: “I said I disliked him as a person, but I admired him as a political operator because he’s managed to take control of running Russia.”

Personally, I hold Putin in contempt for destroying democracy in Russia and have deep suspicions about Trump. Farage’s fan-boy attitude towards the latter and his slippery remarks about the former make me more than a little worried about him too.

The shaky start made by Keir Starmer suggests his government could be the last hurrah for liberal democracy in the UK, the last time a government’s main priority is the welfare of its people, with the increasingly migration-obsessed Conservatives unlikely to win power without a coalition deal with Farage’s Reform party.

Slow and gradual decline

One reason why Starmer is in trouble is that many people don’t realise the world has changed and still think we live in the pre-financial crash world, still expect all pensioners to receive winter fuel allowance and that Waspi women should be compensated.

So Labour’s ‘tough decisions’ feel shocking, outrageous and unacceptable. The problem is that, in holding this or any government to such high standards, we risk forcing them to stretch our national resources too thin, so that everything is in a state of slow and gradual decline.

This denial of changed circumstances can also be seen in inflated pay claims as people understandably try to defend their living standards, without taking account of the bigger picture. Something similar can be seen in relation to climate change. ‘Deniers’ may have stopped arguing with thermometers, but they now protest about each and every change designed to reduce carbon emissions.

If liberal democracy is to survive, we must all face up to the reality of our situation and the need for hard choices. Failing to do so will destroy efforts to fight climate change, hand power to ever-power-hungry populists, and usher a very different world that’s every bit as sinister as Aldous Huxley’s. But, as I said, Happy New Year.