Scottish political establishment writes off Nigel Farage and Reform at their peril

The removal from his post of a Scottish organiser of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK was par for the course.

In advance of July’s General Election, the right-wing, anti-immigration party was forced to drop several candidates over controversial and offensive statements they’d made.

And so it was hardly the surprise of the century when it emerged that Reform has ditched Scottish official Craig Campbell over his ties to Loyalist thugs.

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It was reported last week that he is not only the cousin of Jason Campbell, jailed in 1996 for murdering 16-year-old Celtic supporter Mark Scott in Glasgow, but the son of William Campbell – jailed alongside his brother Colin for their roles in the bombing of the Clelland Bar and Old Barns pub in Glasgow in 1979.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage, right, and party treasurer Nick Candy with Elon Musk, centre, at Mar-A-Lago, the Florida home of US President elect Donald Trump. Picture: Stuart Mitchell/Reform UK/PA WireReform UK leader Nigel Farage, right, and party treasurer Nick Candy with Elon Musk, centre, at Mar-A-Lago, the Florida home of US President elect Donald Trump. Picture: Stuart Mitchell/Reform UK/PA Wire
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage, right, and party treasurer Nick Candy with Elon Musk, centre, at Mar-A-Lago, the Florida home of US President elect Donald Trump. Picture: Stuart Mitchell/Reform UK/PA Wire

Controversy is nothing new to Farage. Reform’s predecessor organisation, The Brexit Party, and Farage’s former party, UKIP, were both frequently in the news over the disturbing things said and done by candidates and officials.

When Campbell’s links to terrorists were uncovered, Reform UK Scotland said the party would “not tolerate discrimination of anyone in any form”. This may be true but it is also the case that parties associated with Farage are deeply unlucky when it comes to bigots slipping through the selection process, undetected.

Farage has never had the impact in Scotland that he has in England and Wales. Indeed, the Reform leader did not venture north of the border during this year’s general election campaign on the grounds that to do so would have been too dangerous.

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But while Farage may not feel welcome in Scotland, his party’s policies are not without appeal to a substantial section of the electorate. In the 2019 European Parliamentary election, Scots sent a Brexit Party representative to Brussels.

Farage’s efforts to build support in Scotland have been made difficult by the fact the SNP currently picks up most of the angry-with-the-system votes that his various parties have harvested in bales elsewhere in the UK.

Right now, members of long-established parties in Scotland do not see Reform as a serious threat. This, I think, is deeply complacent.

Despite next to no campaigning in Scotland in advance of the general election, Reform took seven per cent of the vote, nationally, and overtook the Conservatives in 25 constituencies.

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Without raising a finger, Reform currently enjoys a level of support in Scotland that would see it return MSPs to Holyrood from regional lists across the country.

Imagine, then, what they could do if they tried?

Despite being elected MP for Clacton, Farage has spent much of the past few weeks in the United States, chumming around with president elect Donald Trump.

The Reform leader’s political opponents have, perfectly legitimately, attacked his neglect of his constituents. Their words bounce off him. Farage has more important business at hand.

Along with posing for countless photographs with Trump, Farage spent his time in the States building a relationship with Elon Musk. And now the talk is of the Tesla billionaire – appointed by Trump to deal with unnecessary government spending during his administration – making a huge donation to Reform.

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South Africa-born Musk donated $75 million to Trump re-election bid. The businessman’s father, Errol, has previously suggested his son might become a UK citizen in order to give $100m to Reform.

Last week Farage confirmed that his party is in negotiations with Musk about the possibility of him providing funding, so long as it could be done legally through UK companies.

The Reform leader would not be drawn on a figure, but even a fraction of the $100m suggested by Musk’s father would make a massive difference not only to Farage’s party but to UK politics.

The Conservatives are Reform’s natural prey in Scotland. Tory leader Russell Findlay will be deeply concerned that his party stands to lose a number of seats to Farage in 2026.

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But, if other Scottish party leaders think they are immune to the threat of Reform, I believe they are very much mistaken.

The mood of disaffection which led to the increase in support for the SNP remains. Poll after poll tells us of voter frustration with the current Scottish government while no leader of a mainstream party enjoys positive approval ratings.

A slick, well-funded, and shamelessly populist campaign from Reform in 2026 could see the party in a position to influence who becomes the next First Minister of Scotland.

There remains, however, the matter of Nigel Farage. While there are, as both the 2019 Euro election result and current polling show, Scottish voters ready to back his party, I don’t think the country is ready to open its arms to him.

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A new Scottish Reform leader, on the other hand? Well, that might be a different matter.

Generally when parties like Reform appoint Scottish officials, they end up with people like Craig Campbell. But a well-funded, sophisticated operation, with the high profile backing of Elon Musk, would, I think, see more serious figures take an interest.

I think Labour candidates in Scotland will hold their own against Reform challengers in 2026. However, whether Labour in England could go on to do the same against a heavily funded, newly professionalised Reform is less certain

If Labour’s recently reacquired red wall falls to Farage and Co. at the next general election, the SNP will expect a boost in support for independence.

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For a long time, Nigel Farage has been considered little more than a nuisance by the Scottish political establishment. I wonder if Elon Musk is about to make the Reform leader a real threat to the future of the United Kingdom.

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