Why it's clear Starmer's EU deal barely makes dent in Brexit damage

Assessments of Labour’s new EU deal suggest it could add 0.2 per cent to the UK’s GDP by 2040. Brexit is calculated to have reduced GDP by 20 times as much

It was back to the future in Basel last weekend as Eurovision returned to its Swiss roots. Sixty-nine years ago today, the first contest took place in Lugarno with the home side winning with the song Refrain. Decades on, the contest remains a European fixture.

We also had a week of nostalgia in Westminster with a return to the Brexit debates and very little ‘refraining’ from the Brexiteers who got us into this mess. Their reactions to the EU trade deal didn’t show the UK in a terribly positive light.

Westminster politicians and media still don’t seem to understand the EU, the UK’s most important political, strategic and economic partner, much to the country’s detriment. Even the Chancellor got carried away saying that the UK was now the best-placed state on Earth for trade, with very little to back up that grand assertion.

READ MORE: Starmer and Swinney meet with both still working out the relationship 'reset'

The Eurovision Song Contest is still going strong nearly seven decades after this example of international cooperation began (Picture: Keystone) | Getty Images

Post-Brexit years a disaster for UK

In the opposite corner, Brexiteers compared the agreement, rather disgracefully, to Neville Chamberlain’s ill-fated deal with the Nazis. Maybe they could all have done with a sense of perspective.

This was not the great breakthrough sought by pro-Europeans after what has been a disastrous few years for the UK. Similarly, it was not an end to Brexit, unfortunately.

Rather, as the Swiss would advise, being outside the EU means an ongoing process of negotiation and renegotiation. The Swiss have been singing this song for decades and the UK can expect the same for decades to come if it insists on staying outside the Single Market and Customs Union.

READ MORE: Wrong to call EU UK 'Brexit reset' trade deal a 'surrender', SNP's Stephen Flynn says

Just like Eurovision, and I say this as a fan of the song contest, Brexit never did quite go away and, bluntly, it never quite will.

So much of the case for leaving the EU was predicated on the belief that, once the UK left, the rest of Europe would follow its lead and abandon Brussels. We were told that the French and Dutch would be just behind the British and that even pro-European Ireland would be left with no option but to leave.

Europe stronger than ever

The reverse has been the case. Europe remained united, and was resolutely behind Dublin in the difficult years after the Brexit referendum. As the UK floundered, Europeans looked in disbelief at the harm that a previously sensible member state was inflicting upon itself.

That Union became even more important in the aftermath of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 when Europe’s states pulled closer together for security, mindful that the first Trump presidency had already left them dangerously exposed, and the Atlantic alliance undermined.

There is no question of the EU falling apart and even the most Eurosceptic of political parties have abandoned policies to leave. The UK’s departure strengthened the bloc with European citizens well aware that it had damaged itself with nothing tangible in return.

We are now in a world where the EU is stronger and more important than ever. It will also inevitably get bigger in the years to come with Moldova, Ukraine and the Balkans eyeing up membership in the east, and Norway and Iceland reassessing their relationship with the bloc in the west. Across the north Atlantic, Canada is looking to deepen its ties with the EU.

Given Russia’s threats to its neighbours, Brexit quickly became a sideshow for most European leaders. This week’s so-called breakthrough was anything but. Assessments suggest that the deal could add 0.2 per cent to the UK’s GDP by, wait for it, 2040.

That stands in contrast to the UK Government’s calculation that 4 per cent of GDP has been lost due to the UK leaving the EU. That is a massive gap and goes a long way to explain why the country is still in the economic funk it is.

The bare minimum

This might be tinkering but you can’t blame some businesses for welcoming the deal. After years of the UK Government throwing up barriers to trade, which have been especially damaging to small businesses, naturally they welcome some, albeit limited, removal of red tape. There is a sense of some relief whilst recognising this is less than the bare minimum we should have expected.

As for other parts of the agreement, some young people may see some benefits, but again it’s a far cry from the freedom of movement that my generation enjoyed. To be a young British passport-holder means having fewer rights than young people in any other western European state. Hardly, a badge of pride.

In Scotland, there is understandable anger in the fishing community that has struggled with a Brexit that never delivered on the promises made a decade ago, compounded by a new agreement at their expense. For older generations, this will bring back memories of the fishing community being described as ‘expendable’ when the UK first joined. That would have been unthinkable if Scotland was a full member state.

Keep on talking

There was also frustration and anger in Belfast, Cardiff and Edinburgh when, true to form, the UK did not consult the devolved administrations. Ministers argued that there was no time, but the EU managed to keep 27 different governments, as well as the European Parliament and other stakeholders, in agreement throughout the process.

As Ireland showed throughout Brexit, states can protect their interests, including fishing, even in the most difficult of circumstances. As part of the UK, Scotland has no such recourse. Whereas the European Union is a club for independent states, which are treated as equals as co-signatories to the treaties, the UK certainly is not.

Any progress was minimal, and much rests on an agreement to keep talking. So, if you like endless negotiations, then you could be in for a good few decades. Otherwise, maybe we should ask whether it was all even worth it and get on with the inevitable and rejoin. Time for a new song?

Stephen Gethins is MP for Arbroath and Broughty Ferry