Why Elon Musk will pay the price for Donald Trump's faltering popularity

In this age of anger and hate, the presence of Donald Trump in the White House should be seen as a rallying call, not only to defend democracy in America but to ensure that European countries help shape a new international order – maybe a new Atlanticism but also the beginning of a new Europeanism.

Trump’s “shock and awe” tactics – designed to destabilise his opponents and dazzle the media – should fool no one. Time is not on his side.

Apologists for Trump will try to convince us that the spat between him and Europe is only about the latter failing to invest sufficiently in its own defence. Of course, this is true and will top the agenda when Trump and Keir Starmer meet in the White House.

Trump, though, is trying to monetise the international agenda, preferring to rule rather than serve. The extreme right is the enemy of both Europe and the US. Humanity is being assaulted by money, making politics more difficult. Trump is also risking a civil war in America.

Elon Musk brandishes a chainsaw alongside Argentinian President Javier Milei during the annual Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Oxon Hill, Maryland (Picture: Saul Loeb) | AFP via Getty Images

The return of kakistocracy

Europe must remain pragmatic, seeking compromise and accommodation when appropriate, but realising that this is a political conflict, not just a trade or security confrontation. The US government is now interfering in European politics, siding with the far-right, undermining institutions, and collaborating with that pariah state, Russia.

The Ancient Greeks had a word for those behind the onslaught on democracy in America: kakistocracy! Describing government by the worst people, the least qualified, suitable or competent, and the most unscrupulous, it was the Economist magazine’s word of 2024. This is Trump’s cabinet, a demolition squad!

A political fightback against Trump must be waged in Europe and the United States. Although this is early days in the battle to avert a constitutional crisis or civil war, there are a number of significant truths that can be marshalled by his opponents to find common ground over the next four years, debunk his claim of God-like qualities, and bring progressives together in new alliances on both sides of the Atlantic.

So how do we address the tyranny Trump seeks to impose on the world? Obviously there must be red lines to avoid selling out to the worst excesses of Trumpism, too much compromise may look like surrender. Trump’s post-election propaganda, suggesting invincibility and popularity, must be confronted.

Trump didn’t win a landslide

First, it’s important to debunk claims Trump won a landslide election victory and a historic mandate for change. More people voted for someone other than Trump who received less than 50 per cent of the votes. If you consider the fact that 36 per cent of Americans eligible to vote didn’t bother, Trump won even though two-thirds of the total electorate did not vote for him.

Congressional midterm elections in November 2026 will be the first real test of the Trump presidency. The wafer-thin majority of the Republican party in the House of Representatives is unlikely to survive.

Trump’s early post-election approval ratings are dismal, lower than any other newly elected president going back to 1953. Recent polls from Reuters, Quinnipiac University, CNN and Gallup, suggest Trump’s honeymoon is already over. Musing about being a king and running for a third term are alarming voters including Republicans, according to historian Heather Cox Richardson’s well-respected blog.

Democrats still control nearly half of the 50 states and are using their own substantial powers to offer resistance and block and frustrate Trump, in the hope they can eventually derail his most egregious plans to dismantle essential public services.

Musk looking like a liability

Evidence also suggests the Democrats spectacularly contributed to their own defeat in the 2024 election by losing the confidence of key voters. Biden held out too long. There was growing anger about the economy and the cost of living. Minorities believed they were being taken for granted by the ruling party. But of course, Trump deceived the electorate by not spelling out the carnage he is now inflicting.

New polling evidence suggests that Elon Musk is a liability for Trump. His recent brandishing of a chainsaw at the annual Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) and his erratic behaviour suggest his days are numbered. Republicans are listening to the anger of voters alarmed by huge job cuts in vital public services, led by Musk’s Department for Government Efficiency (Doge). Musk has been unnerving many of Trump’s senior advisers and could soon be purged, Putin style.

The Democratic party, demoralised post-election, is recovering and starting to stand up to Trump, but opposition within the Republican party is also slowly emerging. Support for their leader is waning, although many are still gripped by fear of retribution. The embrace of Putin and the purging of the military in the Pentagon could help tip members of Congress into opposing this tyrannical leader.

But as Bernie Sanders, a left-wing independent US Senator, wrote in a recent Guardian article Trumpism won’t be defeated by politicians but only by “millions of Americans, in every state in this country, coming together in a strong, grassroots movement which says no to oligarchy, no to authoritarianism, no to kleptocracy, no to massive cuts in programs that working people desperately need...”

250th anniversary of independence looms

On the other side of the political divide, an anti-Trump conservative, Heath Mayo, told the Washington Post that “it is time to think out of the box”. He has founded Principles First, a movement and conference designed to function as a counterweight to the pro-Trump CPAC.

Trump’s craving to memorialise “hard men” dictators such as Putin is anathema to a vast swathe of Americans. And the Supreme Court may yet wake up to the threat Trump poses to the US constitution.

Trump does not represent what America stands for. As the US approaches the 250th anniversary of independence on July 4, 2026, a majority of voters in this remarkable country could help reinvigorate democracy in America, thereby helping to create a stable world, and a stronger Europe.

Henry McLeish is a former First Minister of Scotland