Why abandoning Ukraine will usher in new world order in which great wars are inevitable

This is a voice from inside Ukraine. As air raid alarms ring throughout Ukrainian cities daily, an alarm must begin sounding in people’s minds about the inflection point the world now faces.

Ukraine’s future is haunted by pervasive uncertainty. The imminent inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump has sparked growing fears the US will shy from its resolute support for Ukraine and abandon it to Russian domination.

If assistance to Ukraine dries up, the inevitable outcome is Russia’s occupation and annexation of massive swathes of Ukrainian territory. No matter if Ukraine concedes territory, this will be a ‘peace’ in name only. Russia has made it clear it will be satisfied with nothing less than control over Ukraine’s entirety.

The fight to defend Ukraine's borders is also about defending international law that outlaws seizing territory by conquest (Picture: Roman Pilipey) | AFP via Getty Images

Shabby, forced compromises

What do the rules of the international legal system under attack today say about Russia’s attempt to impose territorial concessions? To summarise years of international law, the heart of the current global order is the prohibition of the use of force.

Violators are to be outlawed. The rule-breaker cannot obtain legal rights to conquered territories. International law prohibits any ‘peace treaty’ demanding Ukraine surrender an inch of its land – giving Ukraine the right to demand the return of ceded territory regardless of the passage of time or shabby, forced compromises.

And the law goes further, obliging states to actively confront illegal use of force. Third-party states cannot recognise territorial claims or normalise them through economic cooperation in occupied territories. They are not permitted to provide substantial aid or assistance to the conqueror’s projects.

Consequences of not stopping Russia

Instead, states have obligations to cooperate to bring the aggressors’ acts to an end through lawful means, such as economic sanctions, diplomatic pressure, or travel bans. The system demands impactful efforts to return the status quo and compensate the rights of harmed.

A system with such core rules meets its fateful end once states accept a reality where despots forcefully tear off parts of other nations. If Russia is not stopped in Ukraine, not because other nations cannot but are not willing to stop it, legal prohibitions shaping our modern world will be unmasked as ultimately worthless.

The collapse of one order inevitably gives birth to another where aggressors choose the territories they want, where threats and violence become supreme law. These consequences will reverberate, globally and right into the heart of America and Europe.

All-consuming chaos

Preserving the international legal order through aid to Ukraine directly benefits other Europeans and Americans. As the current international legal order has suppressed the number and intensity of inter-state wars, US and European direct military involvement has remained limited. But returning to a bygone era’s lawlessness will inevitably bring forth future great wars where bystanding will be impossible.

Global security guarantees underpinning the modern world order have sustained the stability and reliability in global economic exchanges necessary for consistent economic growth for the entire international community. Remove these essential attributes and this potential for shared wealth dissipates – investment flows, trading, supply chains and the livelihoods of ordinary people dependent on them collapse into crashing economies.

Out of all historical lessons, the world needs to accept the quintessential one: appeasing an aggressor in the name of preserving fragile stability today eventually leads to all-consuming chaos tomorrow in Ukraine and beyond.

Maksym Vishchyk and Jeremy Pizzi are legal advisors at Global Rights Compliance