20 years after heady hope of Ukraine's Orange Revolution, global democracy is in trouble

Just over 20 years ago, I spent the festive period in Ukraine, during the ‘Orange Revolution’. The cold weather didn’t stop daily protests against corruption and voter intimidation in the elections. Russia’s preferred candidate eventually lost out to Viktor Yushchenko, who was inaugurated in January 2005, his face still disfigured from attempts to poison him. Reportedly it was an event that shaped Putin’s outlook as he sought to rein in the relatively newly independent states on Russia’s borders.

Walking about the Maidan, or square, in Kyiv, it was difficult not to share the optimism and enthusiasm of young protesters who were looking ahead to the New Year, and a what they hoped was a new and better era. Democracy and a more open future, free of Kremlin control, along with the normal festive cheer, was a heady mix.

Little did those protestors know that a decade later, in 2014, many of them would be back out in that same square to again protesting against Russian interference and the annexation of Crimea and part of the Donbas and, ten years after that, many of the same citizens would be spending this New Year holiday in trenches under attack from Russian shells and drones.

The hope felt during Ukraine's 'Orange Revolution' 20 years ago has been replaced by growing concern about the state of democracy in the world (Picture: Sergei Supinsky) | AFP via Getty Images

Trump presidency looms large

Despite Ukraine’s heroic efforts, it is difficult to look ahead with great optimism for the New Year, for although Russia is eminently beatable, Ukrainians have received less help from allies than they need or deserve. The road to democracy and security has been a hard one and it isn’t getting easier, as any protestor in Georgia will testify, another country whose territory is occupied by Russia.

In just over a fortnight, there will be another presidential inauguration that will have a big impact on Ukraine, and the rest of us, as Donald Trump takes the oath of office. The US President-elect enjoys his reputation for unpredictability, but his actions and rhetoric do not bode well for those of us interested in democracy and security in Europe.

He has vowed to bring the war in Ukraine to an abrupt end, but it is difficult to see how that will happen without either Russia withdrawing from Ukraine or significant territorial concessions that reward the aggressor.

All this at a time of more uncertainty than ever. Those in power in Russia consider themselves at war with Europe’s democracies and so the cutting of cables and other hostile acts should come as no surprise, be it in the Baltic or elsewhere. Countries bordering Russia such as Finland, Poland, Estonia and Lithuania have paid the price of others appeasing the Kremlin, and within living memory.

European leadership has been devolved to some of the Continent’s smaller countries which are standing up to their larger and aggressive neighbour. Poland apart, the traditional powers in London, Paris and Berlin find themselves unable or unwilling to respond effectively.

Rebuilding Syria

Elsewhere, few will mourn the toppling of the Assad regime’s Kremlin puppets in Syria. After more than half a century of oppression and stagnation, Syrians deserve their time of celebration over this festive period, and not just the Christian minority. However, the success, or failure, of a revolution comes in the aftermath, where rebuilding and governing will take time and effort, away from the gaze of the international media. This will be especially difficult in a country that is as diverse as Syria and one that has been ravaged by years of civil war.

Israel took advantage of the upheaval in Syria to launch attacks on that country’s defences and seize more Syrian territory around the Golan Heights. That will make life more difficult for the new administration in Damascus and exacerbate regional tensions.

Further south in Gaza, Israel’s war continues, with devastating consequences for the civilian population. Not only does this undermine any hopes of peace and stability in the region but the evidence from around the world is that this level of devastation being visited on a civilian population creates greater polarisation and radicalisation. Israel’s actions make it no safer and are damaging from a humanitarian and security perspective.

World’s worst humanitarian crisis

The Middle East and Europe are not alone in posing challenges. The war in Sudan rumbles on and remains the worst humanitarian crisis on Earth, even if precious few are paying much in the way of attention. The situation across Africa will be made worse as Russia tries to find new bases for its forces, eyeing up ports in Libya and elsewhere and with Chad suddenly ending its military ties with France.

China will be seeking opportunities caused by any the vacuum of US isolationism and European weakness. Tensions in the South China Sea are already high, with Taiwan feeling particularly vulnerable and threatened by Beijing.

There will also be concerns around a more aggressive North Korea, which has very little to lose and whose troops are fighting alongside Russia in Ukraine. Further south in Myanmar, rebels have made significant gains in recent months including seizing border crossings with China and reported defections from the authoritarian regime, leading to speculation about a Syria-style collapse.

Weak response by democracies

These conflicts and our security are inter-connected. At the start of a New Year, it is difficult to feel the same level of hope about the inevitable march of democracy and human freedom as there was 20 years ago in Kyiv. The diverse threats from authoritarians across the world, such as through trade, disinformation and polarisation, need to be taken seriously. Yet the response from democracies can often be weak and short-term in nature.

However, as we look back on what we predicted last year, we know nothing is certain. We take the lessons of the past, for good or ill, and we apply them to doing better in the future. Let’s be optimistic and hope this year is better than the last. Democrats everywhere are going to need all the goodwill they can gather.

Stephen Gethins is MP for Arbroath and Broughty Ferry and professor of international relations at the University of St Andrews